Turn Iowa Blue Again

P4D’s midterm tour moves west this week, from Pennsylvania—the subject of our previous email–to Iowa, where we focus on three federal races: the Senate and Congressional Districts 1 and 3.  The state could provide insights into how rural voters react to Trump’s “Make Iran Great Again” agreement, global tariffs and inflation which have rattled commodity prices and agricultural stability.

Iowa Can Return to Its Bluer Days

Not too long ago, Iowa was considered a battleground state. Obama won the state twice.  After 2014, however, the state has trended Republican. For example, the First District went from voting for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in 2018 by 4.1 points to voting for Trump in 2024 by 8.5 points. The Third District had a similar, though less pronounced, rightward swing. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat in Iowa since Tom Harkin in 2008, and in the last three elections in Iowa, Republicans won all four House seats, with one one-term exception in 2020.

Yet, with a Blue wave possible this year, respected pundits believe that the three races we are highlighting are in play, despite Trump winning the state in 2024 by 13 points. Trump’s trade policies and his war in Iran have especially hurt farm states like Iowa. Diesel, fertilizer, steel, aluminum and other farm input costs are way up, while foreign retaliatory tariffs have reduced agricultural exports and depressed commodity prices. In addition, stable and reliable agricultural export markets through the USAID program have been eliminated.

Voters may blame Republicans for farmers’ woes as voters did when Democratic Presidential candidates carried the state in 1988, 1992 and 1996.

The Cook Report wrote that “the overall environment in the Hawkeye State is an increasingly favorable one for Democrats given backlash to tariffs and rising fuel and fertilizer prices as a result of the Iran War.”  In addition, the Democrats have nominated Rob Sand for Governor, thought to be an unusually strong candidate to lead the statewide ticket.

Iowa’s Senate Seat Is In Play

Incumbent Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican, is not running for re-election. In the June 2 Iowa Democratic Senate primary, state Representative Josh Turek, a former paralympic athlete who was born with spina bifida, defeated his fellow state legislator Zach Wahls by 26 points. On the Republican side, U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson, endorsed by Trump, won handily. She starts the general election with a notable cash advantage, and the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund said it plans to spend $29 million in ads in the race. But the Senate Majority PAC, Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, made a $13.4 million television reservation for the fall, to highlight Hinson’s record of prioritizing donors, lobbyists, corporations, and Washington insiders over the “voice of ordinary Americans”. The Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

esident Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results including attempting to replace Pennsylvania’s slate of electors. He opposed extension of the Affordable Care Act calling it “an enormous mistake”, supported Trump’s tariff initiatives and called for a national abortion ban.  Janelle Stelson is a long time Emmy-award winning news anchor in the area. She won her primary with 75% of the vote and has been endorsed by Governor Josh Shapiro and EMILY’s list.