Democrats Can Overcome Republican Gerrymandering

Fight for Our Piece of the Pie

The election results earlier this month are cause for great hope and encouragement. Democrats along with disaffected Independents and Republicans showed up and sent an unequivocal message. Predictably, these results will push Republicans to double down on their strategy of cheating their way to victory in 2026. They will continue to stack the deck through gerrymandering, discouraging voter registration, purging voter rolls, attacking the integrity of our voting system, threatening election workers, and attempting to disqualify mail-in ballots. Just last week, Trump pardoned a number of people helping to overturn the 2020 election—a clear signal that he has the back of those who will try again in 2026.

But Democrats can fight back successfully. In this email, we discuss how we can overcome Republican gerrymandering. In our next email, we will address how to combat voter suppression efforts. The bottom line: Republicans will try to steal the next election, but there are plenty of things we can do to stop it.

Republicans Have Changed the Rules on Redistricting

Normally, congressional district lines are redrawn right after the 10-year census, to account for changes in state population. To be sure, this often has been the occasion for partisan gerrymandering in states where Democrats or Republicans control both the legislature and the governor’s office. But this year, five years after the last census, Texas, at Trump’s direction, changed its district boundaries to gain five Republican seats in Congress in the 2026 election. This gerrymandering has spurred a redistricting battle between the two parties.

Democrats are constrained by the number of blue states with constitutional limitations on gerrymandering. But Democrats are showing a willingness to amend their state’s constitution to permit gerrymandering to offset Republican gerrymandering. They accomplished that feat in California by ballot initiative earlier this month, and Virginia intends to follow suit. Maryland, which has no constitutional prohibition against gerrymandering, may also redraw its map.

Meanwhile, Republicans recently gerrymandered in Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio in addition to Texas, and may also redraw maps in Florida. It’s always possible that other red or blue states will join the effort. All states that have gerrymandered to date are facing lawsuits, and in Missouri, citizens have organized a ballot initiative to defeat the redistricting.

To the extent that Democrats amend state constitutions to permit partisan gerrymandering, they will have an advantage over Republicans. Most red states already are gerrymandered to some degree, so they have fewer districts left to flip. In contrast, blue states without a history of gerrymandering have more districts to flip.

The Supreme Court Is A Wild Card

A wildcard in the redistricting battle is whether the Supreme Court will strike down or curtail Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Section 2 has been a critical tool to challenge electoral maps that dilute the votes of communities of color. In the last decade, federal courts ordered changes to 29 maps or electoral systems under this law.

The Supreme Court heard argument last month in a case asking whether Louisiana’s creation of a second majority-minority district under Section 2 unconstitutionally restricts voting rights based on race. At oral argument, the Justices appeared ready to curtail Section 2 and allow Louisiana to dilute Black representation. If the Court so rules and does so in time for the midterms (it may not rule until June) that plausibly would enable Republicans to gain up to 12 seats through redistricting in southern states.

Gerrymandering Is Not Always Successful

Importantly, gerrymandering is not guaranteed to succeed—for either side. Gerrymandering works by redrawing lines to move voters from a safe district to a competitive district. This makes the competitive district less competitive in favor of the gerrymandering party. But it simultaneously makes the safe district less safe.

A hypothetical will help explain how this works. Assume Republicans control the state government. Consider two congressional districts with equal populations: one in which Trump won handily in 2024, receiving 65% of the vote, and the other in which he lost narrowly, receiving 48% of the vote. The Republicans redraw lines to move voters accounting for six percentage points of the Trump vote from the safe district to the losing district. Their expectation is that the Republican congressional candidate in the safe district will still win, but with around 59% of the vote (rather than 65%), while the candidate in the losing district will get around 54% of the vote (instead of 48%), enough to flip the seat from Democratic to Republican.

While this gerrymandering is designed to give Republicans an additional seat, it also makes the safe seat less safe. If voters accounting for 10 percentage points of Trump’s support in 2024 vote for the Democrat in 2026, the Democrat can win the formerly safe Republican district. Likewise, a comparable shift left in the other district would also be enough for the Democrat to win. In short, gerrymandering creates some risk and can be overcome by a strong showing by the opposing party.

Nate Cohn of the New York Times calculates that if, in addition to Texas, the red states of Missouri, Utah, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Kansas and all Southern states redistrict, then the Democrats, with the redistricting in California, would need to win the national popular vote by 4.4 to 5.6 percentage points to win the House in 2026. Given the unpopularity of the Republican agenda, Trump’s actions, and the margins by which Democrats won in the recent 2025 races, that seems very achievable.

What We Need To Do

At this juncture, there are two strategies for Democrats to overcome Republican gerrymandering. First, as we did earlier this month, Democrats need to show up in big numbers in the midterms. If our voters overwhelm their voters, we can offset the impact of the redrawn Congressional districts. That makes grassroots organizing and Get Out The Vote efforts crucial in the months leading up to the election.

Second, we can support groups that are challenging Republican gerrymandering in court. Just recently, progressive groups in Utah secured a court order requiring the state, which currently has no Democratic members of Congress, to create a competitive district.

Fight for Our Piece of the Pie

The election results earlier this month are cause for great hope and encouragement. Democrats along with disaffected Independents and Republicans showed up and sent an unequivocal message. Predictably, these results will push Republicans to double down on their strategy of cheating their way to victory in 2026. They will continue to stack the deck through gerrymandering, discouraging voter registration, purging voter rolls, attacking the integrity of our voting system, threatening election workers, and attempting to disqualify mail-in ballots. Just last week, Trump pardoned a number of people helping to overturn the 2020 election—a clear signal that he has the back of those who will try again in 2026.

But Democrats can fight back successfully. In this email, we discuss how we can overcome Republican gerrymandering. In our next email, we will address how to combat voter suppression efforts. The bottom line: Republicans will try to steal the next election, but there are plenty of things we can do to stop it.

Republicans Have Changed the Rules on Redistricting

Normally, congressional district lines are redrawn right after the 10-year census, to account for changes in state population. To be sure, this often has been the occasion for partisan gerrymandering in states where Democrats or Republicans control both the legislature and the governor’s office. But this year, five years after the last census, Texas, at Trump’s direction, changed its district boundaries to gain five Republican seats in Congress in the 2026 election. This gerrymandering has spurred a redistricting battle between the two parties.

Democrats are constrained by the number of blue states with constitutional limitations on gerrymandering. But Democrats are showing a willingness to amend their state’s constitution to permit gerrymandering to offset Republican gerrymandering. They accomplished that feat in California by ballot initiative earlier this month, and Virginia intends to follow suit. Maryland, which has no constitutional prohibition against gerrymandering, may also redraw its map.

Meanwhile, Republicans recently gerrymandered in Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio in addition to Texas, and may also redraw maps in Florida. It’s always possible that other red or blue states will join the effort. All states that have gerrymandered to date are facing lawsuits, and in Missouri, citizens have organized a ballot initiative to defeat the redistricting.

To the extent that Democrats amend state constitutions to permit partisan gerrymandering, they will have an advantage over Republicans. Most red states already are gerrymandered to some degree, so they have fewer districts left to flip. In contrast, blue states without a history of gerrymandering have more districts to flip.

The Supreme Court Is A Wild Card

A wildcard in the redistricting battle is whether the Supreme Court will strike down or curtail Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Section 2 has been a critical tool to challenge electoral maps that dilute the votes of communities of color. In the last decade, federal courts ordered changes to 29 maps or electoral systems under this law.

The Supreme Court heard argument last month in a case asking whether Louisiana’s creation of a second majority-minority district under Section 2 unconstitutionally restricts voting rights based on race. At oral argument, the Justices appeared ready to curtail Section 2 and allow Louisiana to dilute Black representation. If the Court so rules and does so in time for the midterms (it may not rule until June) that plausibly would enable Republicans to gain up to 12 seats through redistricting in southern states.

Gerrymandering Is Not Always Successful

Importantly, gerrymandering is not guaranteed to succeed—for either side. Gerrymandering works by redrawing lines to move voters from a safe district to a competitive district. This makes the competitive district less competitive in favor of the gerrymandering party. But it simultaneously makes the safe district less safe.

A hypothetical will help explain how this works. Assume Republicans control the state government. Consider two congressional districts with equal populations: one in which Trump won handily in 2024, receiving 65% of the vote, and the other in which he lost narrowly, receiving 48% of the vote. The Republicans redraw lines to move voters accounting for six percentage points of the Trump vote from the safe district to the losing district. Their expectation is that the Republican congressional candidate in the safe district will still win, but with around 59% of the vote (rather than 65%), while the candidate in the losing district will get around 54% of the vote (instead of 48%), enough to flip the seat from Democratic to Republican.

While this gerrymandering is designed to give Republicans an additional seat, it also makes the safe seat less safe. If voters accounting for 10 percentage points of Trump’s support in 2024 vote for the Democrat in 2026, the Democrat can win the formerly safe Republican district. Likewise, a comparable shift left in the other district would also be enough for the Democrat to win. In short, gerrymandering creates some risk and can be overcome by a strong showing by the opposing party.

Nate Cohn of the New York Times calculates that if, in addition to Texas, the red states of Missouri, Utah, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Kansas and all Southern states redistrict, then the Democrats, with the redistricting in California, would need to win the national popular vote by 4.4 to 5.6 percentage points to win the House in 2026. Given the unpopularity of the Republican agenda, Trump’s actions, and the margins by which Democrats won in the recent 2025 races, that seems very achievable.

What We Need To Do

At this juncture, there are two strategies for Democrats to overcome Republican gerrymandering. First, as we did earlier this month, Democrats need to show up in big numbers in the midterms. If our voters overwhelm their voters, we can offset the impact of the redrawn Congressional districts. That makes grassroots organizing and Get Out The Vote efforts crucial in the months leading up to the election.

Second, we can support groups that are challenging Republican gerrymandering in court. Just recently, progressive groups in Utah secured a court order requiring the state, which currently has no Democratic members of Congress, to create a competitive district.