Five Tossup Races: Three to Flip & Two to Hold
Five Tossup Races: Three to Flip & Two to Hold
Critical Races for Dems
P4D continues its focus on flipping control of the House. This week we highlight five tossup congressional races in five states: Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin and Washington. Republicans currently hold a 221-215 margin in the House. However, gerrymandering in the past year requires that Democrats flip more than just four of the 19 seats rated as tossups to take control of the House. The Democrat is the incumbent in just four of the 19 contests, including in the races in Florida and Washington discussed in this email.
Seats to Flip
Michigan 7
William Lawrence
The seventh congressional district in Michigan centers around Lansing, the state capital. Sabato’s Crystal Ball identified the district as a presidential bellwether because it voted for the winner in the last five presidential elections. The incumbent is freshman Republican Tom Barrett.
The Democratic nominee is William Lawrence, a Lansing-born activist who co-founded the Sunrise Movement, a climate advocacy non-profit; the Michigan Rent Is Too Damn High Coalition; and the Mid-Michigan Tenant Resource Center. He is a progressive Democrat, focusing in his campaign on lowering the cost of living, universal health care, climate and ending the war in Iran.
His opponent could not present a greater contrast. Barrett is expected to try to turn the focus away from an unpopular president and onto his opponent’s leftist record. He was a major 2020 presidential election skeptic raising serious questions about its integrity. In his only term in office, he has been a consistent backer of the Trump agenda, voting in line with the President’s policies, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, more than 95% of the time.
Ohio 7
Brian Poindexter
Because no Democrat has won Ohio’s 7th congressional district since 1937, it is a surprise that this seat is up for grabs. Incumbent Republican Congressman Max Miller has been challenged by Brian Poindexter. But the underlying dynamics have changed considerably this year. The district boundaries were modified by the Ohio Redistricting Commission which approved a new congressional map this year. And most consequential, the incumbent, Max Miller, has been accused by his ex-wife of spousal and child abuse.
Brian Poindexter has a working-class pedigree. He worked as a union ironworker and served as an at-large member of the Brook Park City Council. He currently is an apprenticeship instructor for the Ironworkers Local 17 union. He is running on a pro-worker, pro-union platform which complements the campaign being run by Sherrod Brown to flip the US Senate seat in Ohio.
Miller is a two-term Congressman who worked on Trump’s 2016 campaign and was a senior advisor in the first Trump administration. Miller’s website says he has “a record of fighting against radical Democrat policies ….” At least six Republican Senators have urged Miller to drop out of the race as has his ex-father-in-law, Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno.
As of the end of June, Miller had raised $2.14 million, nearly four times Poindexter’s $603,000. Nonetheless, polls show a neck-and-neck race. He will need additional resources should Republicans heavily invest to hold this seat.
Wisconsin 3
Rebecca Cooke
This district, which lies along the state’s western border, is expected to be among the most competitive in the nation. Rebecca Cooke won the August 11 Democratic primary by 20 points and now faces two-term Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden, who was unopposed in the primary.
Cooke grew up on a Wisconsin dairy farm and later started a home goods store and then a non-profit that provides start-up capital and hands-on education for women-owned businesses in western Wisconsin. She ran unsuccessfully against Van Orden in 2022 and 2024, losing by only two points in the second election and outperforming Kamala Harris. She is running as a centrist and promises to caucus with the Blue Dogs, a group of Democrats who seek to appeal to mainstream values including fiscally responsible policies and strong national defense.
Van Orden had a 26-year career in the U.S. Navy and has appeared in three movies. He was present at the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, crossing police barricades, as reported by the Daily Beast. Van Orden is an extremist even by MAGA standards. He was cited for carrying a loaded handgun in his bag at a security checkpoint at an Iowa airport, according to court records. In the current Congress, he has voted with his party 97% of the time in the most recent 40 rollcalls tracked and supports nationwide abortion bans and voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill.
Seats to Hold
Florida 25
Jared Moskowitz
The boundaries of this district changed dramatically when Florida Republicans enacted a new map mid-cycle this year. The action is designed to give Republicans four additional House seats, one being Florida 25. Democrat Jared Moskowitz, elected to Congress from another district gerrymandered this year, is now running in the new 25th district. In 2024, voters residing within the boundaries of new Florida 25 supported Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by a nine-point margin. Nonetheless, the race is considered a tossup.
Moskowitz, a two-term Congressman, won the August 18 Democratic primary handily. Ironically, in 2019, Moskowitz was appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis to be Florida’s Director of Emergency Management. He has been critical of Democratic Socialists and is running as a pragmatist who can get things done.
The Republican challenger, Scott Singer, has worked as an attorney and a small business owner. He is a fellow at the America First Policy Institute, a non-profit research organization founded by Linda McMahon, former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, among others. Singer served as mayor of Boca Raton for eight years. He says that, in Congress, he would work with President Trump to advance the America First agenda.
Washington 3
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Democrats are seeking to hold the seat in the 3rd District in Washinton which covers the southwest corner of the state. In the state’s top-two open primary, two-term incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez finished second to Republican John Braun, by about 7,000 votes. They will face each other in the general election. Trump won this district in 2024 by 3 points. This is one of 23 House districts that, in 2024, both elected a Democrat to the House and voted for Trump for president.
Perez is co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, and a member of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. Perez and her husband own an auto repair shop. She has been called a pragmatist, and her campaign website says that “Marie is ranked as one of the most bipartisan lawmakers in the House and regularly works across the aisle to fix what’s broken and make things easier for working families ….”
Braun has served in the Washington Senate since 2013 and has been the state’s Senate minority leader since 2021. He was endorsed by President Trump in the primaries. He served in the U.S. Navy and Navy Reserve for a total of 31 years. He was president of Braun Northwest, an emergency vehicle manufacturer. While in the state legislature, he opposed abortion rights and voting by mail.
If you are on the fence about making contributions in this election, think about how life will be if we don’t flip the House.
Critical Races for Dems
P4D continues its focus on flipping control of the House. This week we highlight five tossup congressional races in five states: Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin and Washington. Republicans currently hold a 221-215 margin in the House. However, gerrymandering in the past year requires that Democrats flip more than just four of the 19 seats rated as tossups to take control of the House. The Democrat is the incumbent in just four of the 19 contests, including in the races in Florida and Washington discussed in this email.
Seats to Flip
Michigan 7
William Lawrence
The seventh congressional district in Michigan centers around Lansing, the state capital. Sabato’s Crystal Ball identified the district as a presidential bellwether because it voted for the winner in the last five presidential elections. The incumbent is freshman Republican Tom Barrett.
The Democratic nominee is William Lawrence, a Lansing-born activist who co-founded the Sunrise Movement, a climate advocacy non-profit; the Michigan Rent Is Too Damn High Coalition; and the Mid-Michigan Tenant Resource Center. He is a progressive Democrat, focusing in his campaign on lowering the cost of living, universal health care, climate and ending the war in Iran.
His opponent could not present a greater contrast. Barrett is expected to try to turn the focus away from an unpopular president and onto his opponent’s leftist record. He was a major 2020 presidential election skeptic raising serious questions about its integrity. In his only term in office, he has been a consistent backer of the Trump agenda, voting in line with the President’s policies, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, more than 95% of the time.
Ohio 7
Brian Poindexter
Because no Democrat has won Ohio’s 7th congressional district since 1937, it is a surprise that this seat is up for grabs. Incumbent Republican Congressman Max Miller has been challenged by Brian Poindexter. But the underlying dynamics have changed considerably this year. The district boundaries were modified by the Ohio Redistricting Commission which approved a new congressional map this year. And most consequential, the incumbent, Max Miller, has been accused by his ex-wife of spousal and child abuse.
Brian Poindexter has a working-class pedigree. He worked as a union ironworker and served as an at-large member of the Brook Park City Council. He currently is an apprenticeship instructor for the Ironworkers Local 17 union. He is running on a pro-worker, pro-union platform which complements the campaign being run by Sherrod Brown to flip the US Senate seat in Ohio.
Miller is a two-term Congressman who worked on Trump’s 2016 campaign and was a senior advisor in the first Trump administration. Miller’s website says he has “a record of fighting against radical Democrat policies ….” At least six Republican Senators have urged Miller to drop out of the race as has his ex-father-in-law, Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno.
As of the end of June, Miller had raised $2.14 million, nearly four times Poindexter’s $603,000. Nonetheless, polls show a neck-and-neck race. He will need additional resources should Republicans heavily invest to hold this seat.
Wisconsin 3
Rebecca Cooke
This district, which lies along the state’s western border, is expected to be among the most competitive in the nation. Rebecca Cooke won the August 11 Democratic primary by 20 points and now faces two-term Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden, who was unopposed in the primary.
Cooke grew up on a Wisconsin dairy farm and later started a home goods store and then a non-profit that provides start-up capital and hands-on education for women-owned businesses in western Wisconsin. She ran unsuccessfully against Van Orden in 2022 and 2024, losing by only two points in the second election and outperforming Kamala Harris. She is running as a centrist and promises to caucus with the Blue Dogs, a group of Democrats who seek to appeal to mainstream values including fiscally responsible policies and strong national defense.
Van Orden had a 26-year career in the U.S. Navy and has appeared in three movies. He was present at the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, crossing police barricades, as reported by the Daily Beast. Van Orden is an extremist even by MAGA standards. He was cited for carrying a loaded handgun in his bag at a security checkpoint at an Iowa airport, according to court records. In the current Congress, he has voted with his party 97% of the time in the most recent 40 rollcalls tracked and supports nationwide abortion bans and voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill.
Seats to Hold
Florida 25
Jared Moskowitz
The boundaries of this district changed dramatically when Florida Republicans enacted a new map mid-cycle this year. The action is designed to give Republicans four additional House seats, one being Florida 25. Democrat Jared Moskowitz, elected to Congress from another district gerrymandered this year, is now running in the new 25th district. In 2024, voters residing within the boundaries of new Florida 25 supported Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by a nine-point margin. Nonetheless, the race is considered a tossup.
Moskowitz, a two-term Congressman, won the August 18 Democratic primary handily. Ironically, in 2019, Moskowitz was appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis to be Florida’s Director of Emergency Management. He has been critical of Democratic Socialists and is running as a pragmatist who can get things done.
The Republican challenger, Scott Singer, has worked as an attorney and a small business owner. He is a fellow at the America First Policy Institute, a non-profit research organization founded by Linda McMahon, former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, among others. Singer served as mayor of Boca Raton for eight years. He says that, in Congress, he would work with President Trump to advance the America First agenda.
Washington 3
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Democrats are seeking to hold the seat in the 3rd District in Washinton which covers the southwest corner of the state. In the state’s top-two open primary, two-term incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez finished second to Republican John Braun, by about 7,000 votes. They will face each other in the general election. Trump won this district in 2024 by 3 points. This is one of 23 House districts that, in 2024, both elected a Democrat to the House and voted for Trump for president.
Perez is co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, and a member of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. Perez and her husband own an auto repair shop. She has been called a pragmatist, and her campaign website says that “Marie is ranked as one of the most bipartisan lawmakers in the House and regularly works across the aisle to fix what’s broken and make things easier for working families ….”
Braun has served in the Washington Senate since 2013 and has been the state’s Senate minority leader since 2021. He was endorsed by President Trump in the primaries. He served in the U.S. Navy and Navy Reserve for a total of 31 years. He was president of Braun Northwest, an emergency vehicle manufacturer. While in the state legislature, he opposed abortion rights and voting by mail.
If you are on the fence about making contributions in this election, think about how life will be if we don’t flip the House.