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The Road to the House Runs Through Pennsylvania

The Road to the House Runs Through Pennsylvania

It All Begins Here

No one state can be decisive in presidential or mid-term elections.  Some states, however, are likely to be particularly pivotal, and Pennsylvania is certainly one of them.  Not only has Pennsylvania long been considered a bellwether state – picking the eventual winner in presidential elections since 1900 correctly 78.1 % of the time – but it also is home to four of the most competitive House races this year.

Pennsylvania is Key to Flipping the House

In the upcoming mid-terms, the opportunity to flip seats is drastically narrowing due to aggressive gerrymandering and the self-sorting of the electorate.  The highly regarded non-partisan Cook report presently estimates that there are only 18 “toss-up” and 17 “leaning” races for House seats in 2026.  Sabato’s Crystal Ball lists an even smaller number.  What is notable is that on both of their lists Pennsylvania has the largest number of potentially swing districts with four seats up for grabs.

Also, what happens in the mid-terms in Pennsylvania may have a carryover effect to the 2028 presidential cycle.  Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin were long considered the Democrat party’s “Blue Wall”, voting predominantly for Democrat candidates since 1992.  That trend was broken by Trump in 2016 and his victory in the Blue Wall states was credited with him getting over the line in that election.  Biden, in 2020, reversed that trend winning all three of these states, but in 2024, Trump once again conquered the Blue Wall.  So, both parties continue to be focused on this battleground trifecta. And to add to motivation, Governor Josh Shapiro is also up for reelection.

P4D’s Endorsements:  Four Flippable Seats in November

Pennsylvania District 1—Bob Harvie, a long time Bucks County resident who has served as Chair and Vice-Chair of the Bucks County Commissioners, is the Democratic challenger in District 1.  His opponent is Brian Fitzpatrick, the five term Republican Congressman, one of only three Republicans who won in a district that supported Vice-President Harris over Trump.  District1 is In the southeastern part of the state and includes all of Buck’s County and a slice of Montgomery County.

Fitzpatrick has tried to play both sides.  He was only one of three Republicans to vote against Trump’s budget reconciliation legislation (the One Big Beautiful Bill) and opposes Trump’s $1.75 billion Weaponization Fund.  However, when push comes to shove, Fitzpatrick has often fallen in line with Trump, voting with him 76.5% of the time.  This includes Trump’s overall budget package that passed the House by one vote.  He also “missed” the House Ways and Means committee vote to extend the Affordable Care Act.    Bob Harvie is a life-long resident of Bucks County and has been involved in local politics since 2002. He graduated Magna Cum Laude from George Washington University and has a master’s degree in education, subsequently serving for 20 years as a high school social studies teacher.

Pennsylvania District 7:  Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter, is a strong contender in this race.  The incumbent, Ryan Mackenzie, barely won the seat by slightly more than 1% and a 4,000-vote margin, one of the lowest in the country. Trump won the district by only 51.1%.  District 7 includes the Lehigh Valley with its key cities being Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton.

Brooks won support from both sides of the Democrat party including Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro, Senator Bernie Sanders, the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee, and the Blue Dog Caucus.  Mackenzie is seen as a staunch supporter of President Trump’s agenda having voted in lockstep with the President’s proposals 98% of the time.  One factor that has given hope to Democrats in the 7th District is that one fifth of the district is made up of Latinos who have generally swung strongly against Trump policies recently.

Pennsylvania District 8—Paige Cognetti won a special election as the first female mayor of Scranton, and has served in that position since 2000, having been reelected twice including in a landslide in 2025.  Her Republican opponent, incumbent Congressman Rob Bresnahan flipped this seat in 2024 with only 50.7% of the vote while Trump had a somewhat higher margin at slightly less than 54%.  District 8 is in the northeastern section of Pennsylvania with its major cities being Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.

Bresnahan has been a strong supporter of President Trump’s policies, voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill and speaking out in favor of Trump’s immigration policies.  While he has called for a ban on stock trading by Congressional representatives, he has been attacked for his own stock trades on companies later hit with Trump tariffs.   Cognetti has a master’s degree from Harvard Business School and served as a senior administrator during the Obama administration. While Trump and Bresnahan won in 2024, almost all of the lower-level political elections in District 8 went to Democrats.

Pennsylvania District 10–   Janelle Stelson is the Democratic challenger to Republican incumbent Scott Perry to whom she lost by a mere 5,133 margin in 2024.  Perry is one of Congress’ most conservative members, having served as Chair of the House Freedom Caucus.  District 10 is in south central Pennsylvania.  Harrisburg, the state capital, and York are its two largest cities.

This promises to be one of the most contentious in the country.  Perry actively took part in President Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results including attempting to replace Pennsylvania’s slate of electors. He opposed extension of the Affordable Care Act calling it “an enormous mistake”, supported Trump’s tariff initiatives and called for a national abortion ban.  Janelle Stelson is a long time Emmy-award winning news anchor in the area. She won her primary with 75% of the vote and has been endorsed by Governor Josh Shapiro and EMILY’s list.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It All Begins Here.

No one state can be decisive in presidential or mid-term elections.  Some states, however, are likely to be particularly pivotal, and Pennsylvania is certainly one of them.  Not only has Pennsylvania long been considered a bellwether state – picking the eventual winner in presidential elections since 1900 correctly 78.1 % of the time – but it also is home to four of the most competitive House races this year.

Pennsylvania is Key to Flipping the House

In the upcoming mid-terms, the opportunity to flip seats is drastically narrowing due to aggressive gerrymandering and the self-sorting of the electorate.  The highly regarded non-partisan Cook report presently estimates that there are only 18 “toss-up” and 17 “leaning” races for House seats in 2026.  Sabato’s Crystal Ball lists an even smaller number.  What is notable is that on both of their lists Pennsylvania has the largest number of potentially swing districts with four seats up for grabs.

Also, what happens in the mid-terms in Pennsylvania may have a carryover effect to the 2028 presidential cycle.  Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin were long considered the Democrat party’s “Blue Wall”, voting predominantly for Democrat candidates since 1992.  That trend was broken by Trump in 2016 and his victory in the Blue Wall states was credited with him getting over the line in that election.  Biden, in 2020, reversed that trend winning all three of these states, but in 2024, Trump once again conquered the Blue Wall.  So, both parties continue to be focused on this battleground trifecta. And to add to motivation, Governor Josh Shapiro is also up for reelection.

P4D’s Endorsements:  Four Flippable Seats in November

Pennsylvania District 1—Bob Harvie, a long time Bucks County resident who has served as Chair and Vice-Chair of the Bucks County Commissioners, is the Democratic challenger in District 1.  His opponent is Brian Fitzpatrick, the five term Republican Congressman, one of only three Republicans who won in a district that supported Vice-President Harris over Trump.  District1 is In the southeastern part of the state and includes all of Buck’s County and a slice of Montgomery County.

Fitzpatrick has tried to play both sides.  He was only one of three Republicans to vote against Trump’s budget reconciliation legislation (the One Big Beautiful Bill) and opposes Trump’s $1.75 billion Weaponization Fund.  However, when push comes to shove, Fitzpatrick has often fallen in line with Trump, voting with him 76.5% of the time.  This includes Trump’s overall budget package that passed the House by one vote.  He also “missed” the House Ways and Means committee vote to extend the Affordable Care Act.    Bob Harvie is a life-long resident of Bucks County and has been involved in local politics since 2002. He graduated Magna Cum Laude from George Washington University and has a master’s degree in education, subsequently serving for 20 years as a high school social studies teacher.

Pennsylvania District 7:  Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter, is a strong contender in this race.  The incumbent, Ryan Mackenzie, barely won the seat by slightly more than 1% and a 4,000-vote margin, one of the lowest in the country. Trump won the district by only 51.1%.  District 7 includes the Lehigh Valley with its key cities being Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton.

Brooks won support from both sides of the Democrat party including Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro, Senator Bernie Sanders, the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee, and the Blue Dog Caucus.  Mackenzie is seen as a staunch supporter of President Trump’s agenda having voted in lockstep with the President’s proposals 98% of the time.  One factor that has given hope to Democrats in the 7th District is that one fifth of the district is made up of Latinos who have generally swung strongly against Trump policies recently.

Pennsylvania District 8—Paige Cognetti won a special election as the first female mayor of Scranton, and has served in that position since 2000, having been reelected twice including in a landslide in 2025.  Her Republican opponent, incumbent Congressman Rob Bresnahan flipped this seat in 2024 with only 50.7% of the vote while Trump had a somewhat higher margin at slightly less than 54%.  District 8 is in the northeastern section of Pennsylvania with its major cities being Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.

Bresnahan has been a strong supporter of President Trump’s policies, voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill and speaking out in favor of Trump’s immigration policies.  While he has called for a ban on stock trading by Congressional representatives, he has been attacked for his own stock trades on companies later hit with Trump tariffs.   Cognetti has a master’s degree from Harvard Business School and served as a senior administrator during the Obama administration. While Trump and Bresnahan won in 2024, almost all of the lower-level political elections in District 8 went to Democrats.

Pennsylvania District 10–   Janelle Stelson is the Democratic challenger to Republican incumbent Scott Perry to whom she lost by a mere 5,133 margin in 2024.  Perry is one of Congress’ most conservative members, having served as Chair of the House Freedom Caucus.  District 10 is in south central Pennsylvania.  Harrisburg, the state capital, and York are its two largest cities.

This promises to be one of the most contentious in the country.  Perry actively took part in President Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results including attempting to replace Pennsylvania’s slate of electors. He opposed extension of the Affordable Care Act calling it “an enormous mistake”, supported Trump’s tariff initiatives and called for a national abortion ban.  Janelle Stelson is a long time Emmy-award winning news anchor in the area. She won her primary with 75% of the vote and has been endorsed by Governor Josh Shapiro and EMILY’s list.

 

 

 
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