We Can Flip 3 House Seats in Purple Arizona

There is a realistic possibility that an aggressive Democratic and well-financed campaign in Arizona could change the complexion of the state’s political composition.  Arizona, traditionally a Republican state, has produced such prominent Republicans as Senators Barry Goldwater and John McCain. President Trump carried it in 2016 and 2024 but lost in 2020 when Joe Biden carried all six swing states.  Six of the nine Congressional seats are held by Republicans.  But in the past decade the state has become a political battleground where Democrats can succeed if they have strong candidates.

Make no mistake – Arizona remains a deeply divided state. The outcome of the 2020 election roiled state Republicans who continue to believe Trump won it.  Republican primary voters just nominated Congressman Andy Biggs and state Representative Alexander Kolodin, both 2020 election deniers, for Governor and Secretary of State.  Yet, with two Democratic Senators and strong candidates, three Congressional seats are in play and could flip from Red to Blue.

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Arizona District 1:  Amish Shah

Arizona District 1 covers northeastern Maricopa County. It includes such Phoenix suburbs as Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek, Carefree, Fountain Hills and Rio Verde as well as the McDowell Yavapai Nation reservation. This is an open seat, formerly held by a Republican who ran (and lost) in the primary for Governor.  The race is between Democrat Amish Shah, 49, an emergency room physician and Jay Feely, a former NFL placekicker and CBS sports analyst.  The race is rated as a toss-up.

Dr. Shah served in the Arizona House of Representatives from 2019 to 2023, representing part of the congressional district, but was the unsuccessful Democratic congressional candidate for this district in 2024.  His campaign has focused on a return to constitutional government, protecting Medicare and Social Security, lowering consumer costs, supporting public education, and keeping communities safe from gun violence and drug trafficking.

Feely has no background in public service or in Arizona District 1.  He originally planned to run for Congress in the 5^th District but was asked by President Trump to run instead in the 1^st where Republicans were looking for a strong candidate.  There is no reason to expect that Feely would be anything but a down-the-line supporter of President Trump if he were elected.

Arizona District 2- Jonathan Nez

While Arizona District 2, is currently rated as “Leans Republican”, there are reasons to believe that Democrats can flip the seat this year.  The district covers northeastern Arizona, including Flagstaff.  Importantly, it includes 12 native American reservations (22% of the district’s population is Native American).  The Democratic nominee is Jonathan Nez a Native American and former President of the Navajo Nation. His opponent is incumbent Eli Crane who was originally elected in 2013.

Nez had long served his tribal Nation and its 400,000 enrolled members, as a member of its Council and then as Nation Vice President and then President from 2019 to2023.  He has also been involved in state and national politics, for example, serving as a keynote speaker for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

His opponent is Eli Crane, who has served in the House since 2013.  It is fair to describe Crane as a right-wing extremist. He is a 2020 election denier and has endorsed unsupportable conspiracy theories about both assassination attempts against President Trump. He introduced Articles of Impeachment against a Federal District Judge in New York who issued a ruling adverse to DOGE’s access to Treasury Department personal information.  And he is an opponent of assistance to Ukraine and supporter of President Trump’s Iran war.

This is Nez’s second attempt to unseat Crane to whom he lost 54-45 in 2024.  Nonetheless, with an aggressive campaign, pundits believe this year could be different.

Arizona District 6 – JoAnna Mendoza

District 6 is considered one of the last true “swing” districts in the United States.  It covers much of southeastern Arizona and shares a border with Mexico. Most of its population lives in the Tucson suburbs, including Catalina Foothills, Oro Valley, Marana, Green Valley, and Vail.   Democrat Joanna Mendoza is a military veteran with 22 years of service.  Her opponent is incumbent Juan Ciscomani, who was first elected in 2023 but won reelection with only 50% of the vote.  The race is considered a tossup.

Mendoza grew up in poverty in rural Arizona. She served in the U.S. Navy from 1994 to 1997 and then the U.S. Marine Corps from 1998 to 2016, including as a drill Instructor.  She served two tours in Iraq and one in Afghanistan.  Her post-military work experience includes service as a veterans service representative for former Democratic Congressman Tom O’Halleran.  Her campaign has focused on lower costs for American families, strengthening the health care system, protection of veterans, solutions to water problems of the southwest and repairing U.S. alliances in the world.

In contrast, Ciscomani has supported Trump on everything significant, including the “One Big Beautiful Bill” of 2025 which, among other things, cut Medicaid funding, reduced food stamp (SNAP benefits), and supercharged abusive immigration enforcement. The state of Arizona reports a 47% drop in SNAP enrollees since the Bill passed, including 180,000 children. Ciscomani has backed President Trump’s Iran war, voting against the War Powers resolution which would have limited Trump’s power to wage war unilaterally. He lauded the 2022 Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade.

Arizona is a true purple state, always a target in national elections.  We have a real chance of reversing the 6-3 Republican to Democratic margin in the House this election.  If we do so, it will go a long way towards flipping the House.  Please Donate Today!

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