North Carolina: Always in the Mix

Sweet Home, Carolina.

North Carolina offers some of the biggest prizes for Democrats in 2026 with a US Senate seat and two key House races up for grabs. Democrats have an advantage in state races for statewide offices with its candidates for Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State prevailing in 2024. Trump won the state, but by only 1.3% (Biden) and 3.2% (Harris). Yet gerrymandering has given Republicans 10 of 14 House seats. We need to pushback.

The Senate Race

While North Carolina has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 2008 election, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, two top political forecasting groups recently moved the race from toss-up to leans Democrat.

Democrat Roy Cooper is considered an exceptionally strong candidate. In his long political career, he has never lost an election. Cooper grew up in the rural part of North Carolina working on his father’s farm and educated at UNC. He held several other state offices before his election as Governor in 2016, defeating the Republican incumbent. This was the only time in North Carolina’s history that a challenger defeated a sitting Governor. He ran again in 2020, winning decisively.

Polls have shown Cooper consistently ahead in the Senate race but because of the tight partisan divide in North Carolina, the race is expected to be particularly bruising, expensive, and contested.

Cooper’s Republican opponent, Michael Whatley will be no pushover. He has been a Republican operative in the state throughout his career, having worked as Senator Elizaabeth Dole’s Chief of Staff, as a lobbyist for the oil and gas industry, North Carolina Party Chair and subsequently Republican National Committee Chair.

Whatley has been a strong supporter of President Trump, who has endorsed him. Whatley stated that Trump had no responsibility for the January 6^th insurrection. He supports claims of election fraud issues in national and state elections, is an advocate of a national abortion ban and increased gun rights and wants to keep “woke ideology” out of schools.

To help Whatley overcome Roy Cooper’s lead in the polls, the Republican party has pledged a massive commitment of $71 million dollars from the GOP’s Senate Leadership Fund. This race is clearly going to be one of the most spotlighted in the nation.

TWO KEY NORTH CAROLINA CONGRESSIONAL RACES

There are at least two highly contested Congressional races in North Carolina, each trying to flip a seat held by the other party.

We Need to Hold The Seat in District 1

In District 1, Democrat Donald Davis Is Fighting to Keep a Gerrymandered Seat. The Cook Report lists Davis as “the most vulnerable Democrat in the country.” Nevertheless, it lists the race as a toss-up. This election is a rematch between two term Congressman Davis and Laurie Buckhout whom he defeated by 5,826 votes in 2024.

The District is in the Northeastern and Coastal Plain region of North Carolina. Its major cities are Greenville, Rocky Mount, Wilson, Goldsboro, and Elizabeth. It is highly racially diverse with a population of 47% white, 38% Black, 9% Hispanic, 1% Native American and 1% Asian. Trump won the district with 51% of the vote in 2024. However, the legislature redrew District 1 boundaries to make the district more conservative, but even with this change Trump would only have won by 55%. District 1 is one of only 16 Congressional districts that split their political allegiance between their vote for president and their congressional representation.

Don Davis was born in District 1. Growing up he worked in the tobacco fields in the area. He graduated from the Air Force Academy and served as an air force officer for eight years. He served as an assistant professor of Aerospace studies at East Carolina University. At 29 years old he became the youngest mayor of his hometown Snow Hill. He also served in the North Carolina Senate for 12 years and is a Presbyterian minister.

Laurie Buckhout moved to North Carolina only two years before she ran for office. She served in Iraq and retired after 26 years as a Colonel in the army and as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy in the Trump Administration. She founded Corville Consulting in Virginia specializing in electronic warfare, which she sold for $9 million in 2019. In the 2026 primary, she lent herself $2 million dollars and her net worth has been estimated to be over $22 million.

We Can Flip the Seat in District 11

Democrat Jamie Ager could flip a seat now held by Republicans in District 11. The District is wedged into the corner of North Carolina touching the borders of Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina. Its major cities are Ashville, Hendersonville, Waynesville and Brevard and is primarily rural. The 11^th is considered a “sleeper election” because of Trump’s tariff policies, the war in Iran, Trump’s poor response to Hurricane Helene, and political troubles of Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards. The Cook Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently changed their ratings of the district from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

Jamie Ager is believed to be the strongest Democrat to run in the 11^th since former NFL quarterback Heith Schuler won in 2010. Ager is a fourth-generation farmer whose family has been consistently politically active. He runs a 100-acre farm with 200 head of cattle. When Hurricane Helene hit, Ager opened his farm to help those hardest hit by the disaster, providing food and other assistance.

Second term Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards has his work cut out for him. He is a businessman with five McDonald’s franchises in the district, several of which have been charged with health violations. He voted for President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill that has been estimated may lead to 40,000 of his constituents losing their health insurance. Edwards has been attacked for being ineffective in obtaining government support for the cleanup efforts from Hurricane Helene. On top of that, he faces serious charges that he carried out a long-term sexual liaison with one of his top staff members and created a toxic work environment. There is an active House Ethics Committee investigation ongoing.

Sweet Home, Carolina.

North Carolina offers some of the biggest prizes for Democrats in 2026 with a US Senate seat and two key House races up for grabs. Democrats have an advantage in state races for statewide offices with its candidates for Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State prevailing in 2024. Trump won the state, but by only 1.3% (Biden) and 3.2% (Harris). Yet gerrymandering has given Republicans 10 of 14 House seats. We need to pushback.

The Senate Race

While North Carolina has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 2008 election, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, two top political forecasting groups recently moved the race from toss-up to leans Democrat.

Democrat Roy Cooper is considered an exceptionally strong candidate. In his long political career, he has never lost an election. Cooper grew up in the rural part of North Carolina working on his father’s farm and educated at UNC. He held several other state offices before his election as Governor in 2016, defeating the Republican incumbent. This was the only time in North Carolina’s history that a challenger defeated a sitting Governor. He ran again in 2020, winning decisively.

Polls have shown Cooper consistently ahead in the Senate race but because of the tight partisan divide in North Carolina, the race is expected to be particularly bruising, expensive, and contested.

Cooper’s Republican opponent, Michael Whatley will be no pushover. He has been a Republican operative in the state throughout his career, having worked as Senator Elizaabeth Dole’s Chief of Staff, as a lobbyist for the oil and gas industry, North Carolina Party Chair and subsequently Republican National Committee Chair.

Whatley has been a strong supporter of President Trump, who has endorsed him. Whatley stated that Trump had no responsibility for the January 6^th insurrection. He supports claims of election fraud issues in national and state elections, is an advocate of a national abortion ban and increased gun rights and wants to keep “woke ideology” out of schools.

To help Whatley overcome Roy Cooper’s lead in the polls, the Republican party has pledged a massive commitment of $71 million dollars from the GOP’s Senate Leadership Fund. This race is clearly going to be one of the most spotlighted in the nation.

TWO KEY NORTH CAROLINA CONGRESSIONAL RACES

There are at least two highly contested Congressional races in North Carolina, each trying to flip a seat held by the other party.

We Need to Hold The Seat in District 1

In District 1, Democrat Donald Davis Is Fighting to Keep a Gerrymandered Seat. The Cook Report lists Davis as “the most vulnerable Democrat in the country.” Nevertheless, it lists the race as a toss-up. This election is a rematch between two term Congressman Davis and Laurie Buckhout whom he defeated by 5,826 votes in 2024.

The District is in the Northeastern and Coastal Plain region of North Carolina. Its major cities are Greenville, Rocky Mount, Wilson, Goldsboro, and Elizabeth. It is highly racially diverse with a population of 47% white, 38% Black, 9% Hispanic, 1% Native American and 1% Asian. Trump won the district with 51% of the vote in 2024. However, the legislature redrew District 1 boundaries to make the district more conservative, but even with this change Trump would only have won by 55%. District 1 is one of only 16 Congressional districts that split their political allegiance between their vote for president and their congressional representation.

Don Davis was born in District 1. Growing up he worked in the tobacco fields in the area. He graduated from the Air Force Academy and served as an air force officer for eight years. He served as an assistant professor of Aerospace studies at East Carolina University. At 29 years old he became the youngest mayor of his hometown Snow Hill. He also served in the North Carolina Senate for 12 years and is a Presbyterian minister.

Laurie Buckhout moved to North Carolina only two years before she ran for office. She served in Iraq and retired after 26 years as a Colonel in the army and as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy in the Trump Administration. She founded Corville Consulting in Virginia specializing in electronic warfare, which she sold for $9 million in 2019. In the 2026 primary, she lent herself $2 million dollars and her net worth has been estimated to be over $22 million.

We Can Flip the Seat in District 11

Democrat Jamie Ager could flip a seat now held by Republicans in District 11. The District is wedged into the corner of North Carolina touching the borders of Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina. Its major cities are Ashville, Hendersonville, Waynesville and Brevard and is primarily rural. The 11^th is considered a “sleeper election” because of Trump’s tariff policies, the war in Iran, Trump’s poor response to Hurricane Helene, and political troubles of Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards. The Cook Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently changed their ratings of the district from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

Jamie Ager is believed to be the strongest Democrat to run in the 11^th since former NFL quarterback Heith Schuler won in 2010. Ager is a fourth-generation farmer whose family has been consistently politically active. He runs a 100-acre farm with 200 head of cattle. When Hurricane Helene hit, Ager opened his farm to help those hardest hit by the disaster, providing food and other assistance.

Second term Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards has his work cut out for him. He is a businessman with five McDonald’s franchises in the district, several of which have been charged with health violations. He voted for President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill that has been estimated may lead to 40,000 of his constituents losing their health insurance. Edwards has been attacked for being ineffective in obtaining government support for the cleanup efforts from Hurricane Helene. On top of that, he faces serious charges that he carried out a long-term sexual liaison with one of his top staff members and created a toxic work environment. There is an active House Ethics Committee investigation ongoing.