The Republican Strategy for November

The Republican Strategy for November

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Polls continue to paint an encouraging picture for the Democrats in this year’s midterms.  For example, a recent New York Times/Siena poll shows that Trump not only has lost the gains he made among young and non-white voters in 2024 over 2020, but his support from these demographics has also fallen below 2020 levels.

Trump and Republicans are fighting back in nefarious ways:  (1) interfere with state election administration, (2) spend huge sums of money, and (3) rely on states to enact voting restrictions and to gerrymander.

Interference With State Election Administration

The Administration has asked at least 44 states for their complete voter registration lists, which include addresses and social security numbers.  According to the Brennan Center, at least 11 states have turned over the information, and the Department has sued 24 states and DC for the information.  The Administration even tried to leverage ICE violence in Minnesota to coerce the state to turn over its voter rolls.

Now, the Administration is ramping up the threat.  Last week, the FBI seized ballots from the 2020 presidential election in an elections warehouse in Fulton County, Georgia.  It also seized the county’s voter rolls in what Senator Ossoff called a “seismic event” and “a shot across the bow at the midterm elections”.  The concern is that the Administration will use the data to coerce states to improperly purge voter rolls or to support bogus claims about ineligible voting in the election.

Additionally, through masked ICE and CBP agents deployed to various cities, Trump could be looking to create confrontations and chaos as a pretext to use these agents to interfere in some way in the upcoming elections.  The recent events in Minneapolis demonstrate that this concern is anything but fanciful.  Trump said in a recent interview that he regrets not ordering the National Guard to seize voting machines in swing states in the aftermath of the 2020 election.

Spending Big Money

Turning to the second tactic—spending vast sums of money—Trump’s PAC already has raised $300 million, and some predict that it will raise as much as $1 billion for the midterms.  In addition, Elon Musk is back in the Republican fold, having just contributed $10 million to a Republican running for the U.S. Senate in Kentucky.  He promises to support additional Republicans in the midterms.  Democrats likely will face an avalanche of Republican money this year.  Our best antidote is for millions of Democrats and Independents to furnish their own avalanche, less dependent on billionaire largesse.

State Legislation to Restrict Voting

The third tactic Republicans are employing is aggressive pursuit of state legislation to restrict voting.  According to the Brennan Center, in 2025, state legislatures—all in Red states—enacted at least 31 restrictive voting laws.  All but one of these laws will be fully in effect for the midterms.  Several of them impose obstacles to voting by mail.  Others make it harder to register to vote, while some excessively purge voter lists.  Still others make it more difficult to vote in person.

And there may be more to come. 187 bills in 23 states that would restrict access to voting were introduced but not passed in 2025. They will carry over into the 2026 legislative session. Voting most likely will get more difficult in several states this year.

Republicans also seek to restrict mail-in voting through a lawsuit filed by the Republican National Committee.  The case, which is now in the U.S. Supreme Court, challenges a Mississippi law that counts mail ballots sent by Election Day if they arrive within a few days after Election Day.  If the Court were to strike down the law, it would effectively end grace periods in 30 states, some of which were specifically designed to facilitate voting by military and other overseas voters.

And to top it off, last week Republicans in Congress introduced the Make Elections Great Again (MEGA) Act which contains a malodorous potpourri of voter suppression provisions that would apply nationwide.

The Democratic National Committee has begun to fight back.  It has launched its largest-ever voter registration drive, beginning with a seven-figure campaign in battleground districts in Arizona and Nevada.  The “When We Count” initiative centers on a fellowship to train people to register new voters.  It focuses on registering young, non-college-educated Americans and people of color.

Republicans apparently believe that their anti-vote tactics will predominantly suppress the Democratic vote.  The demographics of Republican voters in 2024 make this less clear.  Regardless, while these tactics make voting more difficult, determined voters can overcome the barriers put in their way.  Given the undeniable importance of the upcoming midterms, we all must commit to voting this year—no matter what the obstacles. The larger the turnout, the more difficult it likely will be to change the results of a free and fair election.

Below we outline ways that you can help.

What can you do to help fight Republican efforts to suppress the vote?

• Work at the polls on election day (primaries and general elections). Contact your state or local voting authorities to find out what is available.  Frequently, these are paid positions.
• Work with the state and local Democratic parties to be a poll observer or voter protection advocate. Contact your state or local Democratic party to find out what is available.
• Support groups that protect election officials and safeguard the voting process. Two groups we recommend are:
• The Election Official Legal Defense Network pairs election officials with pro bono attorneys who advise them on how to respond to threats and lawsuits. You can donate HERE.
• The Campaign Legal Center works to ensure that election rules remain fair. You can donate HERE.

Support groups working to get out the vote. Over the next 10 months, we will be identifying these groups.  They need contributions to operate. Here is a good one which focuses on young voters:

• NextGen America– Our research shows that it is effective in registering and encouraging 18-29 year-olds to vote.  You can contribute to its partisan activities HERE and to its non-partisan activities  HERE.