We Can Win These Six Midwest Tossup Races
We Can Win These Six Midwest Tossup Races
All Winnable in the Heartland
Our Number One objective in this election cycle is to win the House. We previously brought to your attention these six races – all in the Midwest . Five are flipping seats from Republicans to Democrats. The sixth is to protect a set we already have. Here are a review and update on where we stand:
Iowa District 1
Iowa’s 1st District features a rematch between Christina Bohannan, the Democratic nominee, and the Republican incumbent, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who beat Bohannan in 2024 by just 799 votes, which was the closest House race in the nation that year. This is the third contest between the two candidates. In 2022, Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannon, 53%-47%. Prior to 2020, when Miller-Meeks was initially elected by 6 votes, a Democrat held the southeast Iowa district for 14 years.
The race remains a tossup. A July 24 poll showed Bohannon holding on to a tenuous 5-point lead. Kalshi, the prediction market site, gave her a 78% chance of winning. Importantly, Bohannan has been doing things she did not do in the last election. She has visited rural sites that she never visited in the previous cycle. A law professor for more than 20 years at the University of Iowa, Bohannon served in the state House in 2021-22.
Miller-Meeks has generally been a reliable Republican vote—despite her competitive district. She has been an active supporter of President Donald Trump, including his farm policies. In her current campaign, she has hosted local appearances by members of Trump’s cabinet—including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
While Trump carried the district by eight points in 2024, Democratic registrations exceeded Republican in the run-up to the primary this year. This is one of the most competitive races in the country and very winnable for Democrats.
Iowa District 3
This contest in Iowa’s 3rd District between Democratic challenger Sarah Trone Garriott and two-term Republican Rep. Zach Nunn remains a Toss-Up three months after we first endorsed Garriott.
Garriott has said that she is running because “public service is supposed to mean serving the public, not yourself, not your donors, not your party.” She promises “to hold everyone who runs our government to the same higher standard.” She proposes to ban politicians from trading stocks and to end partisan gerrymandering, among other reforms. A pastor in the Des Moines area, she co-founded the Iowa Interfaith Exchange. She was elected to the State Senate in 2020 and retained her seat in 2022 after defeating then-Senate president Jake Chapman.
Nunn won re-election in 2024, 52%-48%, in this pale red district, and the political environment is much tougher for Republicans this year. He initially won his seat in 2022 by 2,145 votes and he has generally been a loyal Republican since then. This district hasn’t been friendly to incumbents. Since 2010, no incumbent has held this seat for more than two terms. Des Moines-based Polk County, the heart of the district, is comfortably Democratic. The outlying counties are mostly rural and Republican.
Supporting this race can help continue the recent tradition of not giving an incumbent a third term.
Michigan District 7
There is no more bitterly contested, polarized and close election taking place this year than in Michigan’s 7th District. Democratic challenger William Lawrence is challenging freshman Republican Rep. Tom Barrett, who has continued to deny that Joe Biden won the 2020 election. This is a swing district centered on Lansing, the state capital. Neighboring East Lansing is the home of Michigan State University. For six years before her successful Senate run in 2024, the seat was held by Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin.
Lawrence, a Lansing native and longtime progressive activist, is co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, a climate advocacy non-profit, and has supported the Green New Deal. As a progressive, he has focused his campaign on lowering the cost of living, universal health care, climate change, and ending the war in Iran. “It’s time that DC started working for mid-Michigan families, not billionaires in New York and California,” he said in his “If I Were Your Congressman” platform.
The Republican party and its affiliated super PACs have attacked him for some of his social media postings from the early 2020s, which reflected the anger of the time at social injustice. Lawrence has said that some of those comments are “out of step with what [he] believes now.”
Barrett, a conservative and staunch supporter of Trump in Congress, supported the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025 and Trump’s tariffs despite their negative impact on Michigan. During the 2025 government shutdown, Lawrence led a sit-in at Barrett’s Lansing office to protest the lapse in federal food assistance benefits.
Lansing-based Ingham County, the population center of the district, is firmly Democratic. Traditionally Republican Livingston County has grown more competitive. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as a tossup while the Kalshi prediction market gives 52 percent odds for Lawrence, essentially a dead heat. The Republican money machine is investing heavily in this race. We will need to do the same.
Ohio – District 7
The 7th District was never supposed to be in play. It is a solidly Republican seat that is based in the suburbs of Cleveland. Its incumbent, Max Miller, has been a staunch Trump supporter. But allegations of spousal and child abuse, plus demands by senior Republicans that Miller drop out of the contest, have created the real possibility that this seat could flip. It is rated as a “tossup” by both Cook and Sabato.
Brian Poindexter, the Democratic nominee, has been an ironworker since 2007. During that time, he was a union organizer. He is also a member of the Brook Park City Council. He has campaigned with Bernie Sanders and focused on the cost of living plus other quality-of-life issues, in addition to his pro-worker focus.
Following Miller’s renomination in the uneventful Republican primary, his ex-wife Emily Moreno Miller charged him with domestic violence and abuse of their two-year-old daughter. At Moreno’s request, a judge issued a restraining order against Miller. President Donald Trump and senior House Republicans continued to support Miller, who was a White House aide during Trump’s first term.
Miller refused to exit the race, denying all allegations, even as his own father-in-law, Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno called Miller a “madman” who shouldn’t serve in Congress.. In response to Poindexter’s hard-hitting ad featuring an Ohio county sheriff who detailed the allegations against Miller and said, “Max Miller does not belong in power,” the incumbent ran his own ads highlighting Poindexter’s previous arrests, decades old, on drug and assault allegations. Poindexter was not charged in either instance.
Ohio – District 9
Marcy Kaptur has represented the 9th District of Ohio since 1983, making her the longest serving woman in congressional history. Her Toledo-based seat had been a Democratic stronghold until the Republican legislature redistricted it in 2022. Her reelection in 2024 was a squeaker in which she defeated her current opponent by 2,382 votes—while Trump took the district, 53%-46%. Additional redistricting changes this year have added to the difficulty facing the Kaptur campaign, though she remains an icon in northwest Ohio.
Kaptur returned to work in Washington in September after being injured in an August 2 hit-and-run accident in Toledo where she resides in her childhood home. She has been among the strongest of organized labor’s advocates, earning a 2025 AFL-CIO score of 100% and a lifetime score of 97%. She has been an outspoken opponent of unfair international trade deals and speaks out regularly against corporations that have abandoned the nation’s heartland.
Republican Derek Merrin, a realtor and investor who served eight years in the Ohio House, supports the Trump agenda. He spoke at the recent Midterm Republican Convention in Dallas. Curiously, Merrin posted nothing on social media or elsewhere on the anniversary of 9/11. He is highlighting Kaptur’s age (80) in his quest to capture her seat.
Both Cook and Sabato view this election as a “toss up” although there have been no recent public polls.
Wisconsin District 3
Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, a swing district that elected a Democrat to the House as recently as 2020, hosts one of the most closely watched House races in the country. It is a rematch of the 2024 race where Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke lost by only 11,000 votes. Cook has consistently rated the race a “tossup.” Significantly, Inside Elections moved it from tilt Republican to tossup in June.
Cooke is a small-business owner and former nonprofit leader from western Wisconsin. She grew up on a small dairy farm outside of Eau Claire, which her family was forced to sell. One advantage she has is her experience running against incumbent Derrick Van Orden, when she performed better than the Democratic presidential ticket. In 2024, when Donald Trump won the district by 7 points, Cooke trailed by only 3 points.
Her campaign is presenting her as a broad-based Democratic candidate, seeking support from Democrats, moderates, rural voters and voters dissatisfied with the Trump administration. Cooke has emphasized issues including declining economic conditions, the needs of rural communities and the high costs facing farmers. She has been endorsed by a broad range of Democratic leaders, including the moderate Blue Dog PAC and progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Van Orden, a former Navy SEAL, was elected to Congress in 2022 and is seeking his third term. He has campaigned as a strongly pro-Trump Republican. The AP has verified that he has voted with Trump nearly 100% of the time.
Having come close in 2024, Cooke can win this year with the more favorable political climate. Democratic-sponsored polls in June showed Cooke with a small lead.
All Winnable in the Heartland
Our Number One objective in this election cycle is to win the House. We previously brought to your attention these six races – all in the Midwest . Five are flipping seats from Republicans to Democrats. The sixth is to protect a set we already have. Here are a review and update on where we stand:
Iowa District 1
Iowa’s 1st District features a rematch between Christina Bohannan, the Democratic nominee, and the Republican incumbent, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who beat Bohannan in 2024 by just 799 votes, which was the closest House race in the nation that year. This is the third contest between the two candidates. In 2022, Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannon, 53%-47%. Prior to 2020, when Miller-Meeks was initially elected by 6 votes, a Democrat held the southeast Iowa district for 14 years.
The race remains a tossup. A July 24 poll showed Bohannon holding on to a tenuous 5-point lead. Kalshi, the prediction market site, gave her a 78% chance of winning. Importantly, Bohannan has been doing things she did not do in the last election. She has visited rural sites that she never visited in the previous cycle. A law professor for more than 20 years at the University of Iowa, Bohannon served in the state House in 2021-22.
Miller-Meeks has generally been a reliable Republican vote—despite her competitive district. She has been an active supporter of President Donald Trump, including his farm policies. In her current campaign, she has hosted local appearances by members of Trump’s cabinet—including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
While Trump carried the district by eight points in 2024, Democratic registrations exceeded Republican in the run-up to the primary this year. This is one of the most competitive races in the country and very winnable for Democrats.
Iowa District 3
This contest in Iowa’s 3rd District between Democratic challenger Sarah Trone Garriott and two-term Republican Rep. Zach Nunn remains a Toss-Up three months after we first endorsed Garriott.
Garriott has said that she is running because “public service is supposed to mean serving the public, not yourself, not your donors, not your party.” She promises “to hold everyone who runs our government to the same higher standard.” She proposes to ban politicians from trading stocks and to end partisan gerrymandering, among other reforms. A pastor in the Des Moines area, she co-founded the Iowa Interfaith Exchange. She was elected to the State Senate in 2020 and retained her seat in 2022 after defeating then-Senate president Jake Chapman.
Nunn won re-election in 2024, 52%-48%, in this pale red district, and the political environment is much tougher for Republicans this year. He initially won his seat in 2022 by 2,145 votes and he has generally been a loyal Republican since then. This district hasn’t been friendly to incumbents. Since 2010, no incumbent has held this seat for more than two terms. Des Moines-based Polk County, the heart of the district, is comfortably Democratic. The outlying counties are mostly rural and Republican.
Supporting this race can help continue the recent tradition of not giving an incumbent a third term.
Michigan District 7
There is no more bitterly contested, polarized and close election taking place this year than in Michigan’s 7th District. Democratic challenger William Lawrence is challenging freshman Republican Rep. Tom Barrett, who has continued to deny that Joe Biden won the 2020 election. This is a swing district centered on Lansing, the state capital. Neighboring East Lansing is the home of Michigan State University. For six years before her successful Senate run in 2024, the seat was held by Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin.
Lawrence, a Lansing native and longtime progressive activist, is co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, a climate advocacy non-profit, and has supported the Green New Deal. As a progressive, he has focused his campaign on lowering the cost of living, universal health care, climate change, and ending the war in Iran. “It’s time that DC started working for mid-Michigan families, not billionaires in New York and California,” he said in his “If I Were Your Congressman” platform.
The Republican party and its affiliated super PACs have attacked him for some of his social media postings from the early 2020s, which reflected the anger of the time at social injustice. Lawrence has said that some of those comments are “out of step with what [he] believes now.”
Barrett, a conservative and staunch supporter of Trump in Congress, supported the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025 and Trump’s tariffs despite their negative impact on Michigan. During the 2025 government shutdown, Lawrence led a sit-in at Barrett’s Lansing office to protest the lapse in federal food assistance benefits.
Lansing-based Ingham County, the population center of the district, is firmly Democratic. Traditionally Republican Livingston County has grown more competitive. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as a tossup while the Kalshi prediction market gives 52 percent odds for Lawrence, essentially a dead heat. The Republican money machine is investing heavily in this race. We will need to do the same.
Ohio – District 7
The 7th District was never supposed to be in play. It is a solidly Republican seat that is based in the suburbs of Cleveland. Its incumbent, Max Miller, has been a staunch Trump supporter. But allegations of spousal and child abuse, plus demands by senior Republicans that Miller drop out of the contest, have created the real possibility that this seat could flip. It is rated as a “tossup” by both Cook and Sabato.
Brian Poindexter, the Democratic nominee, has been an ironworker since 2007. During that time, he was a union organizer. He is also a member of the Brook Park City Council. He has campaigned with Bernie Sanders and focused on the cost of living plus other quality-of-life issues, in addition to his pro-worker focus.
Following Miller’s renomination in the uneventful Republican primary, his ex-wife Emily Moreno Miller charged him with domestic violence and abuse of their two-year-old daughter. At Moreno’s request, a judge issued a restraining order against Miller. President Donald Trump and senior House Republicans continued to support Miller, who was a White House aide during Trump’s first term.
Miller refused to exit the race, denying all allegations, even as his own father-in-law, Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno called Miller a “madman” who shouldn’t serve in Congress.. In response to Poindexter’s hard-hitting ad featuring an Ohio county sheriff who detailed the allegations against Miller and said, “Max Miller does not belong in power,” the incumbent ran his own ads highlighting Poindexter’s previous arrests, decades old, on drug and assault allegations. Poindexter was not charged in either instance.
Ohio – District 9
Marcy Kaptur has represented the 9th District of Ohio since 1983, making her the longest serving woman in congressional history. Her Toledo-based seat had been a Democratic stronghold until the Republican legislature redistricted it in 2022. Her reelection in 2024 was a squeaker in which she defeated her current opponent by 2,382 votes—while Trump took the district, 53%-46%. Additional redistricting changes this year have added to the difficulty facing the Kaptur campaign, though she remains an icon in northwest Ohio.
Kaptur returned to work in Washington in September after being injured in an August 2 hit-and-run accident in Toledo where she resides in her childhood home. She has been among the strongest of organized labor’s advocates, earning a 2025 AFL-CIO score of 100% and a lifetime score of 97%. She has been an outspoken opponent of unfair international trade deals and speaks out regularly against corporations that have abandoned the nation’s heartland.
Republican Derek Merrin, a realtor and investor who served eight years in the Ohio House, supports the Trump agenda. He spoke at the recent Midterm Republican Convention in Dallas. Curiously, Merrin posted nothing on social media or elsewhere on the anniversary of 9/11. He is highlighting Kaptur’s age (80) in his quest to capture her seat.
Both Cook and Sabato view this election as a “toss up” although there have been no recent public polls.
Wisconsin District 3
Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, a swing district that elected a Democrat to the House as recently as 2020, hosts one of the most closely watched House races in the country. It is a rematch of the 2024 race where Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke lost by only 11,000 votes. Cook has consistently rated the race a “tossup.” Significantly, Inside Elections moved it from tilt Republican to tossup in June.
Cooke is a small-business owner and former nonprofit leader from western Wisconsin. She grew up on a small dairy farm outside of Eau Claire, which her family was forced to sell. One advantage she has is her experience running against incumbent Derrick Van Orden, when she performed better than the Democratic presidential ticket. In 2024, when Donald Trump won the district by 7 points, Cooke trailed by only 3 points.
Her campaign is presenting her as a broad-based Democratic candidate, seeking support from Democrats, moderates, rural voters and voters dissatisfied with the Trump administration. Cooke has emphasized issues including declining economic conditions, the needs of rural communities and the high costs facing farmers. She has been endorsed by a broad range of Democratic leaders, including the moderate Blue Dog PAC and progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Van Orden, a former Navy SEAL, was elected to Congress in 2022 and is seeking his third term. He has campaigned as a strongly pro-Trump Republican. The AP has verified that he has voted with Trump nearly 100% of the time.
Having come close in 2024, Cooke can win this year with the more favorable political climate. Democratic-sponsored polls in June showed Cooke with a small lead.
y and Navy Reserve for a total of 31 years. He was president of Braun Northwest, an emergency vehicle manufacturer. While in the state legislature, he opposed abortion rights and voting by mail.
If you are on the fence about making contributions in this election, think about how life will be if we don’t flip the House.