Six Toss-Up Races that Can Secure the House
Six Toss-Up Races that Can Secure the House
Six Winnable SeatsP4D is adding six “toss-up” races to its list of races where we believe the Democratic candidate needs our financial support. Five of the seats are held by Republicans. The sixth is a Democratic seat that was gerrymandered in Texas but can be saved. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take control of the House. There are fewer than 20 toss-up races in this election. Virginia District 1
Shannon Taylor, VA-1 There are two seats in Virginia that can turn from red to blue. In Virginia’s District 1, Shannon Taylor is looking to unseat ten-term Republican Congressman Rob Wittman. Polling, candidate quality and historical trends suggest that Wittman’s time may be up. While the District has been traditionally Republican, its demographics are changing. The District has experienced rapid population growth in the Richmond suburbs including many college-educated young voters that trend Democrat. Significantly, in her run for Governor this year, Abigail Spanberger won 51% of the vote in the District. Shannon Taylor is a life-long resident of Virginia. For the last 14 years, she has been the Commonwealth Attorney for Henrico County and presently serves as the President of the Virginia Association of Commonwealth Attorneys. Taylor is running on an anti-corruption platform alleging that Congressman Wittman has been one of the most prolific stock traders in Congress, increasing his wealth from $200,000 to over $8 million. Taylor refuses to take corporate PAC money. Congressman Rob Wittman was first elected to Congress in 2007 and has generally supported Trump policies including border security, executive orders, defense spending increases and the One Big Beautiful Bill. Virginia District 2
Elaine Luria, Va-2 Democrats also have a strong chance of returning Virginia District 2 to the Democrats. The district spans the southeastern coastal region of Virginia. Republican Representative Jennifer Kiggans flipped this seat in 2022 but won her two elections by only four percentage points. Democrat Elaine Luria is seeking to regain the seat which she held from 2018-2022 when she was defeated by Kiggans. Luria spent 20 years in the Navy operating nuclear reactors as an engineer and rose to the rank of Commander. She played a substantial role in the impeachment trial of Donald Trump in 2019. While in Congress, Luria served on the Armed Services Committee and the Homeland Security Committee. She is focusing her campaign on affordability and health care costs Kiggans was also in the Navy, serving as a helicopter pilot from 1993 to 2003 including two Persian Gulf deployments. She is a strong supporter of the Iran war and voted against the War Powers Resolution that would have limited Trump’s power to pursue the war without congressional approval. She also supported a national ban on all abortions after 15 weeks. She voted for Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill and endorses the Save America Act which requires burdensome proof of citizenship to be allowed to vote and is clearly designed to diminish the number of Democrats eligible to vote.
Colorado District 8
Manny Rutinel, Col-8 Colorado District 8 is ripe for picking. The 8th is estimated to be 38%-40% Hispanic. The one-term Republican incumbent, Gabe Evans, barely won in 2024, 49.0% to 48.2%. Trump won the district that year by less than a 2-point margin. The district spans the northern Denver metro area along Interstate 25 and two suburban counties. Democrat Manny Rutinel has a compelling personal story. He is the son of an unmarried woman who immigrated from Mexico. Rutinel worked at McDonald’s and sold his blood 100 times to help ends meet. He worked his way through college and later became an economist for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. He then earned a master’s degree from Johns Hopkins and a law degree from Yale. Rutinel is serving in the Colorado House of Representatives. Evans is an army veteran and a former police officer who owns and runs a family farm. He is a strong Trump supporter voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill that will hurt many of his constituents on Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP). Evans also has consistently taken strong anti-abortion positions. New Jersey District 7
Rebecca Bennett, NJ-7 Republican Tom Kean Jr., the son of a two-term New Jersey Governor, has represented District 7 for two terms – winning his elections by 3 and 5 percentage points respectively. Nonetheless, both President Biden and Kamala Harris carried the District in 2020 and 2024. The District has a general ballot rating of +6.9 Democratic. District 7 is both suburban and exurban, covering all of Huntington and Warren counties and parts of Morris, Somerset, Sussex and Union counties. Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett has an undergraduate degree in chemical engineering and an MBA from Wharton. She served 15 years in the navy and national guard as a helicopter pilot and an aircraft commander. After leaving the navy Bennett worked in strategic planning in the health care industry. She decisively defeated three other candidates in the Democrat primary, accumulating 46% of the vote. Kean has been a reliable supporter of the Trump agenda including border policies and the One Big Beautiful Bill. In March, Kean suddenly and without explanation was absent from the Congress. His absence lasted four months, missing 142 roll-call votes. On his return Kean explained that he had been hospitalized for severe depression but was now “healthier, stronger and excited to return to the work I love.” Democrats note that while he was out he continued actively to trade stocks. California District 22
Randy Villegas, Cal-22 California District 22 is very much in play. While the incumbent Republican David Valadao has been consistently reelected since 2012 (except once), the District generally leans Democratic. In 2024, Valadao won by only 11,500 votes. Moreover, Biden won in 2020 by 17 points although Trump prevailed four years later by 2 points. With recent redistricting in California, the District leans more heavily Democratic. District 22 is located in the San Joaquin Valley and is a majority Latino district. Democratic challenger Randy Villegas is the son of a working-class immigrant family who depended on WIC and Medicaid while he was growing up. He is the first in his family to go to college. He holds a bachelor’s degree in political science and a Ph.D. in politics. He worked as a journalist and then became a professor of political science. He is the only Latino member of the Visalia school board. Villegas is running as a progressive defeating two more moderate candidates in the Democrat primary. Valadeo is the only remaining House Republican who voted for Trump’s impeachment. Despite this fact, he has been generally a strong supporter of Trump policies. He voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill and its cuts to health care and SNAP. This is particularly significant in District 22 which has a 68% Medicaid enrollment rate –the highest in the country. He also downplayed the impact of tariffs.
Texas District 34
Vicente Gonzalez, Tex-34 District 34 is the one toss-up in our list where the incumbent is a Democrat – in a district that Texas Republicans gerrymandered this year. The Cook Political Report lists the District as one of the country’s most competitive. It extends along the Gulf Coast from Brownsville on the Mexican border to Corpus Christi. District 34 is predominantly low-income Hispanic with a Democrat lean, but this year’s redistricting has reduced this advantage substantially. Vicente Gonzalez Jr. is the incumbent and has been a member of Congress for five terms (two terms in old District 15 and three in his current district). He is a co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, a centrist coalition of 10 fiscally conservative Democrats. In 2018, the Lugar Center ranked him among the top 50 Congressmen for bipartisanship. Eric Flores, who has been endorsed by President Trump, is the Republican challenger. Flores states he is a strong supporter of Trump policies, including border crackdowns and the One Big Beautiful Bill. This law will hurt District 34’s many low-income residents through it cuts to Medicaid and SNAP. Flores also called the Affordable Care Act “a failure.” Flipping these 5 seats and holding the sixth will bring us a long way to regaining the House. They warrant your support.
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Six Winnable SeatsP4D is adding six “toss-up” races to its list of races where we believe the Democratic candidate needs our financial support. Five of the seats are held by Republicans. The sixth is a Democratic seat that was gerrymandered in Texas but can be saved. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take control of the House. There are fewer than 20 toss-up races in this election. Virginia District 1
Shannon Taylor, VA-1 There are two seats in Virginia that can turn from red to blue. In Virginia’s District 1, Shannon Taylor is looking to unseat ten-term Republican Congressman Rob Wittman. Polling, candidate quality and historical trends suggest that Wittman’s time may be up. While the District has been traditionally Republican, its demographics are changing. The District has experienced rapid population growth in the Richmond suburbs including many college-educated young voters that trend Democrat. Significantly, in her run for Governor this year, Abigail Spanberger won 51% of the vote in the District. Shannon Taylor is a life-long resident of Virginia. For the last 14 years, she has been the Commonwealth Attorney for Henrico County and presently serves as the President of the Virginia Association of Commonwealth Attorneys. Taylor is running on an anti-corruption platform alleging that Congressman Wittman has been one of the most prolific stock traders in Congress, increasing his wealth from $200,000 to over $8 million. Taylor refuses to take corporate PAC money. Congressman Rob Wittman was first elected to Congress in 2007 and has generally supported Trump policies including border security, executive orders, defense spending increases and the One Big Beautiful Bill. Virginia District 2
Elaine Luria, Va-2 Democrats also have a strong chance of returning Virginia District 2 to the Democrats. The district spans the southeastern coastal region of Virginia. Republican Representative Jennifer Kiggans flipped this seat in 2022 but won her two elections by only four percentage points. Democrat Elaine Luria is seeking to regain the seat which she held from 2018-2022 when she was defeated by Kiggans. Luria spent 20 years in the Navy operating nuclear reactors as an engineer and rose to the rank of Commander. She played a substantial role in the impeachment trial of Donald Trump in 2019. While in Congress, Luria served on the Armed Services Committee and the Homeland Security Committee. She is focusing her campaign on affordability and health care costs Kiggans was also in the Navy, serving as a helicopter pilot from 1993 to 2003 including two Persian Gulf deployments. She is a strong supporter of the Iran war and voted against the War Powers Resolution that would have limited Trump’s power to pursue the war without congressional approval. She also supported a national ban on all abortions after 15 weeks. She voted for Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill and endorses the Save America Act which requires burdensome proof of citizenship to be allowed to vote and is clearly designed to diminish the number of Democrats eligible to vote.
Colorado District 8
Manny Rutinel, Col-8 Colorado District 8 is ripe for picking. The 8th is estimated to be 38%-40% Hispanic. The one-term Republican incumbent, Gabe Evans, barely won in 2024, 49.0% to 48.2%. Trump won the district that year by less than a 2-point margin. The district spans the northern Denver metro area along Interstate 25 and two suburban counties. Democrat Manny Rutinel has a compelling personal story. He is the son of an unmarried woman who immigrated from Mexico. Rutinel worked at McDonald’s and sold his blood 100 times to help ends meet. He worked his way through college and later became an economist for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. He then earned a master’s degree from Johns Hopkins and a law degree from Yale. Rutinel is serving in the Colorado House of Representatives. Evans is an army veteran and a former police officer who owns and runs a family farm. He is a strong Trump supporter voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill that will hurt many of his constituents on Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP). Evans also has consistently taken strong anti-abortion positions. New Jersey District 7
Rebecca Bennett, NJ-7 Republican Tom Kean Jr., the son of a two-term New Jersey Governor, has represented District 7 for two terms – winning his elections by 3 and 5 percentage points respectively. Nonetheless, both President Biden and Kamala Harris carried the District in 2020 and 2024. The District has a general ballot rating of +6.9 Democratic. District 7 is both suburban and exurban, covering all of Huntington and Warren counties and parts of Morris, Somerset, Sussex and Union counties. Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett has an undergraduate degree in chemical engineering and an MBA from Wharton. She served 15 years in the navy and national guard as a helicopter pilot and an aircraft commander. After leaving the navy Bennett worked in strategic planning in the health care industry. She decisively defeated three other candidates in the Democrat primary, accumulating 46% of the vote. Kean has been a reliable supporter of the Trump agenda including border policies and the One Big Beautiful Bill. In March, Kean suddenly and without explanation was absent from the Congress. His absence lasted four months, missing 142 roll-call votes. On his return Kean explained that he had been hospitalized for severe depression but was now “healthier, stronger and excited to return to the work I love.” Democrats note that while he was out he continued actively to trade stocks. California District 22
Randy Villegas, Cal-22 California District 22 is very much in play. While the incumbent Republican David Valadao has been consistently reelected since 2012 (except once), the District generally leans Democratic. In 2024, Valadao won by only 11,500 votes. Moreover, Biden won in 2020 by 17 points although Trump prevailed four years later by 2 points. With recent redistricting in California, the District leans more heavily Democratic. District 22 is located in the San Joaquin Valley and is a majority Latino district. Democratic challenger Randy Villegas is the son of a working-class immigrant family who depended on WIC and Medicaid while he was growing up. He is the first in his family to go to college. He holds a bachelor’s degree in political science and a Ph.D. in politics. He worked as a journalist and then became a professor of political science. He is the only Latino member of the Visalia school board. Villegas is running as a progressive defeating two more moderate candidates in the Democrat primary. Valadeo is the only remaining House Republican who voted for Trump’s impeachment. Despite this fact, he has been generally a strong supporter of Trump policies. He voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill and its cuts to health care and SNAP. This is particularly significant in District 22 which has a 68% Medicaid enrollment rate –the highest in the country. He also downplayed the impact of tariffs.
Texas District 34
Vicente Gonzalez, Tex-34 District 34 is the one toss-up in our list where the incumbent is a Democrat – in a district that Texas Republicans gerrymandered this year. The Cook Political Report lists the District as one of the country’s most competitive. It extends along the Gulf Coast from Brownsville on the Mexican border to Corpus Christi. District 34 is predominantly low-income Hispanic with a Democrat lean, but this year’s redistricting has reduced this advantage substantially. Vicente Gonzalez Jr. is the incumbent and has been a member of Congress for five terms (two terms in old District 15 and three in his current district). He is a co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, a centrist coalition of 10 fiscally conservative Democrats. In 2018, the Lugar Center ranked him among the top 50 Congressmen for bipartisanship. Eric Flores, who has been endorsed by President Trump, is the Republican challenger. Flores states he is a strong supporter of Trump policies, including border crackdowns and the One Big Beautiful Bill. This law will hurt District 34’s many low-income residents through it cuts to Medicaid and SNAP. Flores also called the Affordable Care Act “a failure.” Flipping these 5 seats and holding the sixth will bring us a long way to regaining the House. They warrant your support.
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