The Senate is in Play. Really.

Why Democrats Can Win

Just a few months ago, most pundits thought the Senate was out of reach for Democrats. No more. Democratic control of the Senate is now more than an unrealistic dream.

What changed? For one thing, Trump and his policies have grown more and more unpopular. His war of choice in Iran, and the cruelty, deaths and lies associated with his mass deportation of immigrants, have compounded his unpopularity. Trump’s approval rating has been on a downward trajectory from the start of his second term. A March 9 Ipsos poll over the first weekend of attacks on Iran shows that only 29% of American adults supported the war, while a recent YouGov poll shows that Trump’s approval rating on the economy—once his strong suit—is underwater by 21 points.

In addition, Democrats have nominated, or will likely nominate, strong candidates in some key races. In North Carolina, Roy Cooper, has won every state-wide race he entered over four decades. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown, won three straight Senate races until he was defeated in 2024 in a strong Republican year with Trump at the top of the ticket. In Texas, Democrats nominated James Talarico: a young, articulate, and moderate candidate whose politics and pedigree are aligned with Texas voters. And Texas Democrats are united—his liberal primary opponent immediately endorsed him after the election.

Nor can Republicans rely on their gerrymandering games to hold the Senate. These races are statewide.

Finally, Democrats are on a roll. Democratic turnout in recent elections has been far heavier than in the past. And the results are showing it. In Miami, a Democrat was elected Mayor for the first time in 32 years, with nearly 60% of the vote. In Virginia, Democrat Jay Jones unseated Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares. And in multiple state legislative races in 2025, Democrats seized seats in special elections that were traditionally held by Republicans.

Where Democrats Can Win

Democrats currently have 47 Senate seats. The party needs a net gain of three for a 50-50 tie, but that would still favor the Republicans because Vice President Vance can break a tie vote. So, the goal is to gain four seats. That is within reach.

Democrats’ best chances to flip Senate seats appear to be in North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio. In North Carolina, incumbent Thom Tillis is not running for re-election, and Democratic nominee Roy Cooper has a ten-point lead over Republican nominee Michael Whatley in the latest poll.

The race in Ohio also is promising. The latest two polls show Sherrod Brown two and four points ahead of the incumbent, who was appointed, not elected, to the Senate. Brown is a seasoned candidate, and as he recently reported at a P4D Special Event. Democratic enthusiasm and energy exceeds anything he has seen in his 11 contests for public office.

Democrats in Maine will choose between Graham Platner, a young, progressive oyster farmer, harbormaster, and military veteran, and incumbent governor Janet Mills in the June 10 primary. The winner will face incumbent Susan Collins, the only Republican senator representing a state that voted against Trump in all three of his races. Kamala Harris carried Maine in 2024 by nearly 7 points. Recent polls show Platner beating Collins by as many as 7 points, with Mills roughly even with Collins.

The next best chance for Democrats to pick up a Senate seat may be in Alaska. Mary Peltola is the top challenger to Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. In a 2022 special election, Peltola became the first Democrat since 1972 to hold Alaska’s sole House seat. She lost re-election in 2024 by less than three points in a state Trump carried by 13 points. The most recent polls, in January, show Peltola beating Sullivan by two points.

Two other states are longer shots but possible in a wave election. James Talarico is an especially talented candidate, and early-March polls show him beating Ken Paxton by two points and incumbent John Cornyn by one point. However, the last time a Democrat won a Texas Senate seat was 1988, and Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024. Paxton, who is in a runoff with Cornyn, would be easier to beat due to his 2023 impeachment (he was acquitted of the charges), a securities fraud investigation, several ethics complaints, and his wife divorcing him over his alleged extramarital affair. He may be a bridge too far even for heavily red Texas.

Another seat has only recently joined the list with the surprise announcement by Montana Republican Steve Daines that he will not seek re-election. While Trump won that state handily in 2024, it repeatedly sent two Democrats to the Senate over the last four decades—Jon Tester (2007-2025) and Max Baucus (1978-2014). An Independent candidate has declared his candidacy. He could attract significant Democratic support in the general election if he appears bettered positioned to win than the Democratic nominee. Larry Sabato recently revised his projection, moving the race from a certain Republican win to leaning Republican.

There is a Catch

Democrats need to win four seats to control the Senate, but only if the party also wins the seats it already holds. Democratic incumbents likely will face their toughest races in Georgia and Michigan. In Georgia, a state Trump won by 2.2 points in 2024, incumbent Jon Ossoff has a three to eight point lead over potential Republican opponents in recent polls.

Michigan has an open Senate seat after Gary Peters decided not to seek re-election. Polls in January show the three leading Democratic candidates up by three points (Mallory McMorrow), by six points (Haley Stevens) and even (Abdul El-Sayed) against the leading Republican candidate, Mike Rogers. Rogers lost to Senator Elissa Slotkin in 2024 by fewer than 20,000 votes.

Winning the Senate Is Possible…Really

No one is saying this will be a walk in the park, but if Trump’s popularity continues to decline, the prospects are real. P4D will continue to prioritize House elections because they generally are less well funded than Senate races. Moreover, we must assure that the House can be a firewall against more Trump damage. But we also will keep an eye on opportunities to pick up seats in the Senate.

Why Democrats Can Win

Just a few months ago, most pundits thought the Senate was out of reach for Democrats. No more. Democratic control of the Senate is now more than an unrealistic dream.

What changed? For one thing, Trump and his policies have grown more and more unpopular. His war of choice in Iran, and the cruelty, deaths and lies associated with his mass deportation of immigrants, have compounded his unpopularity. Trump’s approval rating has been on a downward trajectory from the start of his second term. A March 9 Ipsos poll over the first weekend of attacks on Iran shows that only 29% of American adults supported the war, while a recent YouGov poll shows that Trump’s approval rating on the economy—once his strong suit—is underwater by 21 points.

In addition, Democrats have nominated, or will likely nominate, strong candidates in some key races. In North Carolina, Roy Cooper, has won every state-wide race he entered over four decades. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown, won three straight Senate races until he was defeated in 2024 in a strong Republican year with Trump at the top of the ticket. In Texas, Democrats nominated James Talarico: a young, articulate, and moderate candidate whose politics and pedigree are aligned with Texas voters. And Texas Democrats are united—his liberal primary opponent immediately endorsed him after the election.

Nor can Republicans rely on their gerrymandering games to hold the Senate. These races are statewide.

Finally, Democrats are on a roll. Democratic turnout in recent elections has been far heavier than in the past. And the results are showing it. In Miami, a Democrat was elected Mayor for the first time in 32 years, with nearly 60% of the vote. In Virginia, Democrat Jay Jones unseated Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares. And in multiple state legislative races in 2025, Democrats seized seats in special elections that were traditionally held by Republicans.

Where Democrats Can Win

Democrats currently have 47 Senate seats. The party needs a net gain of three for a 50-50 tie, but that would still favor the Republicans because Vice President Vance can break a tie vote. So, the goal is to gain four seats. That is within reach.

Democrats’ best chances to flip Senate seats appear to be in North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio. In North Carolina, incumbent Thom Tillis is not running for re-election, and Democratic nominee Roy Cooper has a ten-point lead over Republican nominee Michael Whatley in the latest poll.

The race in Ohio also is promising. The latest two polls show Sherrod Brown two and four points ahead of the incumbent, who was appointed, not elected, to the Senate. Brown is a seasoned candidate, and as he recently reported at a P4D Special Event. Democratic enthusiasm and energy exceeds anything he has seen in his 11 contests for public office.

Democrats in Maine will choose between Graham Platner, a young, progressive oyster farmer, harbormaster, and military veteran, and incumbent governor Janet Mills in the June 10 primary. The winner will face incumbent Susan Collins, the only Republican senator representing a state that voted against Trump in all three of his races. Kamala Harris carried Maine in 2024 by nearly 7 points. Recent polls show Platner beating Collins by as many as 7 points, with Mills roughly even with Collins.

The next best chance for Democrats to pick up a Senate seat may be in Alaska. Mary Peltola is the top challenger to Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. In a 2022 special election, Peltola became the first Democrat since 1972 to hold Alaska’s sole House seat. She lost re-election in 2024 by less than three points in a state Trump carried by 13 points. The most recent polls, in January, show Peltola beating Sullivan by two points.

Two other states are longer shots but possible in a wave election. James Talarico is an especially talented candidate, and early-March polls show him beating Ken Paxton by two points and incumbent John Cornyn by one point. However, the last time a Democrat won a Texas Senate seat was 1988, and Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024. Paxton, who is in a runoff with Cornyn, would be easier to beat due to his 2023 impeachment (he was acquitted of the charges), a securities fraud investigation, several ethics complaints, and his wife divorcing him over his alleged extramarital affair. He may be a bridge too far even for heavily red Texas.

Another seat has only recently joined the list with the surprise announcement by Montana Republican Steve Daines that he will not seek re-election. While Trump won that state handily in 2024, it repeatedly sent two Democrats to the Senate over the last four decades—Jon Tester (2007-2025) and Max Baucus (1978-2014). An Independent candidate has declared his candidacy. He could attract significant Democratic support in the general election if he appears bettered positioned to win than the Democratic nominee. Larry Sabato recently revised his projection, moving the race from a certain Republican win to leaning Republican.

There is a Catch

Democrats need to win four seats to control the Senate, but only if the party also wins the seats it already holds. Democratic incumbents likely will face their toughest races in Georgia and Michigan. In Georgia, a state Trump won by 2.2 points in 2024, incumbent Jon Ossoff has a three to eight point lead over potential Republican opponents in recent polls.

Michigan has an open Senate seat after Gary Peters decided not to seek re-election. Polls in January show the three leading Democratic candidates up by three points (Mallory McMorrow), by six points (Haley Stevens) and even (Abdul El-Sayed) against the leading Republican candidate, Mike Rogers. Rogers lost to Senator Elissa Slotkin in 2024 by fewer than 20,000 votes.

Winning the Senate Is Possible…Really

No one is saying this will be a walk in the park, but if Trump’s popularity continues to decline, the prospects are real. P4D will continue to prioritize House elections because they generally are less well funded than Senate races. Moreover, we must assure that the House can be a firewall against more Trump damage. But we also will keep an eye on opportunities to pick up seats in the Senate.