Nine Critical Races

Control of the U.S. Senate is within reach for Democrats, but success will depend on nine races that are up for grabs.  The Senate currently consists of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents (Bernie Sanders and Angus King who caucus with the Democrats). To regain control in the upcoming midterms, Democrats will need to hold all their Senate seats up for election and flip four Republican seats.  A 50-50 Senate still favors Republicans because Vice President Vance will break any tie votes.

P4D’s Prior Senate Endorsements

P4D previously endorsed four Senate candidates – Mary Peltola (Alaska), Josh Turek (Iowa), Roy Cooper (North Carolina), and Sherrod Brown (Ohio) – all of whom are in very competitive races. A New York Times/Siena University poll in late June shows Peltola just 2 points down. A poll in late June shows Turek up by 4 points, while another poll in the same time period shows him down by 2 points. A July poll shows Cooper up by 4 points, but down from a 7-point lead in a late-June poll. And a late-June poll shows Brown down 3 points, after leading by 8 points according to an end-of-May poll. These are fluid races and they are key to Democrats’ effort to regain control of the Senate.

  James Talarico – Texas

Jon Ossoff – Georgia

P4D now is adding two Senate candidates in tight races: The first is James Talarico, who is vying for an open seat in Texas. The seat became open when MAGA extremist, Ken Paxton, defeated Republican incumbent, John Cornyn. The second is Jon Ossoff of Georgia, who is defending his seat after his first term in the Senate.

Talarico in Texas

James Talarico is in one of the tightest Senate races this year. A late-June NY Times/Siena poll had him even with Paxton, as did an early-June Siena University poll. The race appears to be a dead heat despite Trump and his unpopular Iran war. Talarico is an eighth-generation Texan, a Presbyterian seminarian, and a young, extremely articulate candidate.

In contrast, Paxton, an ultraconservative and staunch Trump ally, is a seriously flawed candidate. His wife is suing him for divorce on “biblical grounds.” He was impeached as Texas Attorney General in May 2023 by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives (the Texas Senate voted 16-14 to acquit) and was indicted in 2015 for securities fraud. After fulfilling a pretrial agreement for restitution, ethics training and community service, the charges against Paxton were dismissed in 2025 Paxton was endorsed by Trump in the primary. Texas has been a deep red state where no Democrat has won a Texas Senate seat since 1988, although Beto O’ Rourke came within 2.3 points of winning in his Senate bid in 2018. This one could have a different result!

Ossoff in Georgia

Jon Ossoff is the only Democratic senator running for reelection in a state Trump won in 2024. Yet, throughout 2026, Ossoff has held a consistent lead in the polls over his Republican opponent, Mike Collins. Collins has served as the U.S. representative for Georgia’s 10th congressional district since 2023. A poll in late June showed Ossoff up by 13 points, a much stronger showing than his late-winter lead in the polls of just 3 points. Democratic pundits even have been floating his name as a possible Presidential candidate in 2028.

Moreover, Ossoff entered the general election with more than $42 million, one of the largest war chests in the midterms. Collins, meanwhile, has only about $2.1 million in his account. But Republicans appear to be coming to his rescue. The Senate Leadership Fund pledged $44 million to his campaign earlier this year. There are recent allegations about his son-in-law’s virulent antisemitic posts and Collins’ failure to address them.