What’s Your Plan for the Midterms?
What’s Your Plan for the Midterms?
Have a Strategic Plan
It’s an election year – we finally will have an opportunity to thwart MAGA’s destructive monopoly on federal policy. Winning the House or Senate – or maybe both – won’t be easy. It will require millions of volunteers and many dollars, including from smaller donors. If you can contribute money to this effort, what will be your strategy?
If we are able to win at least one house of Congress, it will be a whole new ballgame. Democrats would have the power to block or reshape appropriations and bad legislation, block Trump’s crazy appointments and issue subpoenas. Contributions to effective grassroots groups and to candidates in tight races is your most effective option to meet the moment.
P4D encourages you to support grassroots groups that develop relationships with voters and have developed sound strategies to encourage them to register and vote in target districts and states. We do our best to identify and vet groups that will be focused and effective. We are highlighting these groups over the next few months.
Grassroots groups, especially those that work year-round, need early money to hire organizers in the communities where they work and to build relationships in advance of the election. We get it – giving to groups may not feel as emotionally satisfying, exciting or engaging as giving directly to candidates. But elections are won by who shows up to vote and reluctant voters are best motivated by those who get to know them in their communities. Personal contact by trusted third parties can often be more effective than contacts by political parties, candidates or endless advertisements.
Many analysts believe Donald Trump won in 2024 because of the MAGA grassroots game. Trump’s people met with gun clubs, conservative church groups and others where their voters congregate, and energized them to vote. Democrats need to do the same. This is the ground game that is critical and that is what effective grassroots groups do.
Congressional primaries begin in March and run mostly through June (a few states have later primaries). Generally, P4D will not make recommendations for primary candidates. Once the local voters have picked the candidate they believe is the best Democratic candidate for their district, we will identify candidates where we think the campaign is a good investment of your money.
So, as you plan your political giving, you can expect to see P4D identify the races where we believe your money will make the biggest difference (although we may have a few suggestions before that where there is no meaningful primary as with, for example, Jon Osoff and Sherrod Brown).
When we recommend contributing to a candidate, it will be based on analysis of data and insight. We will assess whether the seat is in play – are we at risk of losing a seat we now hold or a seat we can flip? Is it a so-called “crossover” district or state that voted for the presidential candidate and congressional candidates of different parties. In 2024, there were 16 House districts that went for Trump, but where Democrats won a House seat and 8 districts where a Republican won the House seat in a district Harris carried. Similarly, there were four states won by Trump that elected Democratic Senators. We will look first at those seats.
Beyond that, we will look at polls, forecasts from election experts, the impact of redistricting, unique factors in the district and the candidate’s financial need. It is particularly difficult to precisely assess financial need because there is a three-month lag in reporting to the Federal Election Commission and dark money isn’t even reported. We also will ask any grassroots group with which we are working to weigh in with any local intelligence.
We recognize that there are many excellent issue oriented groups but because they are not focused on the election, we will not have evaluated them. Nonetheless, but we also will urge support for groups that are engaged in activities, including litigation, to fight Trump’s many nefarious efforts to prevent free and fair elections
To reiterate we recommend support for:
- Grassroots groups that build relationships with voters to generate turnout and engagement in critical states and districts.
- Candidates in tough races whose success will enable Democrats to take back Congress and where your contribution can make a difference; and
- Groups fighting Trump’s efforts to prevent free and fair electio
We will also identify opportunities to volunteer, such as writing postcards, and to contact your elected representatives on key issues.
We encourage you to stay actively involved from now through election day. Do it smartly – with a plan that meets your priorities and objectives.
Have a Strategic Plan
It’s an election year – we finally will have an opportunity to thwart MAGA’s destructive monopoly on federal policy. Winning the House or Senate – or maybe both – won’t be easy. It will require millions of volunteers and many dollars, including from smaller donors. If you can contribute money to this effort, what will be your strategy?
If we are able to win at least one house of Congress, it will be a whole new ballgame. Democrats would have the power to block or reshape appropriations and bad legislation, block Trump’s crazy appointments and issue subpoenas. Contributions to effective grassroots groups and to candidates in tight races is your most effective option to meet the moment.
P4D encourages you to support grassroots groups that develop relationships with voters and have developed sound strategies to encourage them to register and vote in target districts and states. We do our best to identify and vet groups that will be focused and effective. We are highlighting these groups over the next few months.
Grassroots groups, especially those that work year-round, need early money to hire organizers in the communities where they work and to build relationships in advance of the election. We get it – giving to groups may not feel as emotionally satisfying, exciting or engaging as giving directly to candidates. But elections are won by who shows up to vote and reluctant voters are best motivated by those who get to know them in their communities. Personal contact by trusted third parties can often be more effective than contacts by political parties, candidates or endless advertisements.
Many analysts believe Donald Trump won in 2024 because of the MAGA grassroots game. Trump’s people met with gun clubs, conservative church groups and others where their voters congregate, and energized them to vote. Democrats need to do the same. This is the ground game that is critical and that is what effective grassroots groups do.
Congressional primaries begin in March and run mostly through June (a few states have later primaries). Generally, P4D will not make recommendations for primary candidates. Once the local voters have picked the candidate they believe is the best Democratic candidate for their district, we will identify candidates where we think the campaign is a good investment of your money.
So, as you plan your political giving, you can expect to see P4D identify the races where we believe your money will make the biggest difference (although we may have a few suggestions before that where there is no meaningful primary as with, for example, Jon Osoff and Sherrod Brown).
When we recommend contributing to a candidate, it will be based on analysis of data and insight. We will assess whether the seat is in play – are we at risk of losing a seat we now hold or a seat we can flip? Is it a so-called “crossover” district or state that voted for the presidential candidate and congressional candidates of different parties. In 2024, there were 16 House districts that went for Trump, but where Democrats won a House seat and 8 districts where a Republican won the House seat in a district Harris carried. Similarly, there were four states won by Trump that elected Democratic Senators. We will look first at those seats.
Beyond that, we will look at polls, forecasts from election experts, the impact of redistricting, unique factors in the district and the candidate’s financial need. It is particularly difficult to precisely assess financial need because there is a three-month lag in reporting to the Federal Election Commission and dark money isn’t even reported. We also will ask any grassroots group with which we are working to weigh in with any local intelligence.
We recognize that there are many excellent issue oriented groups but because they are not focused on the election, we will not have evaluated them. Nonetheless, but we also will urge support for groups that are engaged in activities, including litigation, to fight Trump’s many nefarious efforts to prevent free and fair elections
To reiterate we recommend support for:
- Grassroots groups that build relationships with voters to generate turnout and engagement in critical states and districts.
- Candidates in tough races whose success will enable Democrats to take back Congress and where your contribution can make a difference; and
- Groups fighting Trump’s efforts to prevent free and fair electio
We will also identify opportunities to volunteer, such as writing postcards, and to contact your elected representatives on key issues.
We encourage you to stay actively involved from now through election day. Do it smartly – with a plan that meets your priorities and objectives.
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