Who Abandoned the Democratic Party in 2024?
Who Abandoned the Democratic Party in 2024?
Pew Research Offers Some Insights
Understanding changes in voting patterns in 2024 is a key for Democrats to wrestle control of the House and Senate from Republicans who hold razor thin margins in both Houses. Once we know who voted and who did not, we can begin to assess motivations for 2024 voter behavior and develop strategies for the 2026 and 2028 elections.
The Pew Research Center, a respected and non-partisan entity that studies voter behavior in depth, recently released its study of the 2024 election which provides some significant insights.
In 2024 Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 1.5 percentage points, the first time in his three runs that he won the popular vote and captured 312 Electoral College votes. (270 are required to win.) The vote in swing states was sufficiently close that a shift of 230,000 votes in the right places would have given Harris the win. Trump’s “mandate” is not nearly as overwhelming as he suggests (surprise!).
According to the Pew study, those who voted for Trump in 2024 were “far more racially and ethnically diverse than his voters in 2016 and 2020.”
- He won 48% of Hispanic votes (up from 36% in 2020).
- He won 15% of Black votes (up from 8%).
- He won 40% of Asian voters (up from 30%).
These changes “were largely the result of differences in which voters turned out in the 2020 and 2024 elections” rather than reflecting a large switch in which party’s candidate they supported.
- Trump got a higher turnout from those who voted for him in 2020. 89% who supported Trump in 2020 voted for him in 2024 while Harris received 79% of Biden’s 2020 voters.
- He also did better than Harris among 2024 voters. 54% of those who did not vote in 2020 and did vote in 2024 supported Trump versus 42% for Harris.
Focusing on changed voting of some key demographic groups offers additional insights.
Hispanic Voters: While Joe Biden won Hispanic voters by 25% in 2020, Kamala Harris prevailed by only 3%.
Black Voters: 83% of black voters supported Harris, but this reflects an erosion of support from Biden’s tally of 92%. Most of that loss was among males.
Men, particularly those under 50 years: While Biden attracted a majority of men under 50 in 2020, Trump carried a majority in 2024 (50% versus 47%). Defections played a significant role in the changing voting patterns of those born in the 1980s: 8% of 2020 Biden voters in this group switched their votes to Trump in 2024, while just 2% of 2020 Trump voters born in the ’80s switched their votes to Harris. Looking at all voters under 50, 8% switched from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024, while 4% of Trump’s 2020 voters in this age group switched to Harris.
Asian American Voters favored Harris in 2024, with 57% voting for her. But four in 10 Asian voters (40%) cast ballots for Trump, up from 30% in 2020.
Naturalized Citizens who voted favored Harris by just 4 percentage points (51% – 47%) in sharp contrast to 2020 when they favored Biden by 21 percentage points (59% – 38%)
Partisan Affiliation: Voters switching from the party they voted for in 2020 was not an important factor. Moreover, traditional divisions were evident: those with four-year college degrees and those living in urban areas supported Harris by wide margins while Trump maintained his advantage among noncollege voters and those living in rural areas.
However, turnout was a significant factor. According to Pew, among key demographic groups, “Republican-leaning eligible voters simply were more likely to turn out than Democratic-leaning eligible voters in 2024.”
What can we learn from this data? Certainly, this is only the beginning of the analysis because we need to understand why so many democrats voiced discontent with the candidates or the party, either by switching parties or not showing up. Was this because of the candidate choices or candidate tactics, or was it policy based? Was it one issue or multiple issues? Will those who switched or did not switch regret their choices and return to the Democrats?
Answers to these questions may well vary among the various demographics and even within a group. For example, Hispanics are a very diverse group, and the impacts of the Trump presidency will differ among them. Moreover, different considerations may come into play in the 2026 elections which feature federal Congressional races (as well as state and local races) but no presidential election. The presidential election in 2028 will create a nationwide dynamic that might influence voters’ choices in state and local elections.
There has been an array of national polls seeking answers to why voters made the choices they did in 2024. We believe the most insightful answers will come from the grassroots groups, candidates and office holders who study voting patterns and regularly interact with their voters. Democratic Party platforms and individual candidates’ positions likewise will need to be responsive to the interests of their particular voters if Democrats are to take back the House and Senate.
The Democratic Party needs leaders and positions on key issues that appeal to the hearts and minds of those in the country who would oppose Trump and his Republican enablers. The data show which audiences to target in 2026. Don’t despair. This is a work in progress. As someone famously once said, “If you want to get out of a hole, the first thing to do is stop digging!”
Pew Research Offers Some Insights
Understanding changes in voting patterns in 2024 is a key for Democrats to wrestle control of the House and Senate from Republicans who hold razor thin margins in both Houses. Once we know who voted and who did not, we can begin to assess motivations for 2024 voter behavior and develop strategies for the 2026 and 2028 elections.
The Pew Research Center, a respected and non-partisan entity that studies voter behavior in depth, recently released its study of the 2024 election which provides some significant insights.
In 2024 Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 1.5 percentage points, the first time in his three runs that he won the popular vote and captured 312 Electoral College votes. (270 are required to win.) The vote in swing states was sufficiently close that a shift of 230,000 votes in the right places would have given Harris the win. Trump’s “mandate” is not nearly as overwhelming as he suggests (surprise!).
According to the Pew study, those who voted for Trump in 2024 were “far more racially and ethnically diverse than his voters in 2016 and 2020.”
- He won 48% of Hispanic votes (up from 36% in 2020).
- He won 15% of Black votes (up from 8%).
- He won 40% of Asian voters (up from 30%).
These changes “were largely the result of differences in which voters turned out in the 2020 and 2024 elections” rather than reflecting a large switch in which party’s candidate they supported.
- Trump got a higher turnout from those who voted for him in 2020. 89% who supported Trump in 2020 voted for him in 2024 while Harris received 79% of Biden’s 2020 voters.
- He also did better than Harris among 2024 voters. 54% of those who did not vote in 2020 and did vote in 2024 supported Trump versus 42% for Harris.
Focusing on changed voting of some key demographic groups offers additional insights.
Hispanic Voters: While Joe Biden won Hispanic voters by 25% in 2020, Kamala Harris prevailed by only 3%.
Black Voters: 83% of black voters supported Harris, but this reflects an erosion of support from Biden’s tally of 92%. Most of that loss was among males.
Men, particularly those under 50 years: While Biden attracted a majority of men under 50 in 2020, Trump carried a majority in 2024 (50% versus 47%). Defections played a significant role in the changing voting patterns of those born in the 1980s: 8% of 2020 Biden voters in this group switched their votes to Trump in 2024, while just 2% of 2020 Trump voters born in the ’80s switched their votes to Harris. Looking at all voters under 50, 8% switched from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024, while 4% of Trump’s 2020 voters in this age group switched to Harris.
Asian American Voters favored Harris in 2024, with 57% voting for her. But four in 10 Asian voters (40%) cast ballots for Trump, up from 30% in 2020.
Naturalized Citizens who voted favored Harris by just 4 percentage points (51% – 47%) in sharp contrast to 2020 when they favored Biden by 21 percentage points (59% – 38%)
Partisan Affiliation: Voters switching from the party they voted for in 2020 was not an important factor. Moreover, traditional divisions were evident: those with four-year college degrees and those living in urban areas supported Harris by wide margins while Trump maintained his advantage among noncollege voters and those living in rural areas.
However, turnout was a significant factor. According to Pew, among key demographic groups, “Republican-leaning eligible voters simply were more likely to turn out than Democratic-leaning eligible voters in 2024.”
What can we learn from this data? Certainly, this is only the beginning of the analysis because we need to understand why so many democrats voiced discontent with the candidates or the party, either by switching parties or not showing up. Was this because of the candidate choices or candidate tactics, or was it policy based? Was it one issue or multiple issues? Will those who switched or did not switch regret their choices and return to the Democrats?
Answers to these questions may well vary among the various demographics and even within a group. For example, Hispanics are a very diverse group, and the impacts of the Trump presidency will differ among them. Moreover, different considerations may come into play in the 2026 elections which feature federal Congressional races (as well as state and local races) but no presidential election. The presidential election in 2028 will create a nationwide dynamic that might influence voters’ choices in state and local elections.
There has been an array of national polls seeking answers to why voters made the choices they did in 2024. We believe the most insightful answers will come from the grassroots groups, candidates and office holders who study voting patterns and regularly interact with their voters. Democratic Party platforms and individual candidates’ positions likewise will need to be responsive to the interests of their particular voters if Democrats are to take back the House and Senate.
The Democratic Party needs leaders and positions on key issues that appeal to the hearts and minds of those in the country who would oppose Trump and his Republican enablers. The data show which audiences to target in 2026. Don’t despair. This is a work in progress. As someone famously once said, “If you want to get out of a hole, the first thing to do is stop digging!”