FLIP THE HOUSE
Congressional Candidates We Support
Why You Should Consider Contributing to These Races
Seats that Could Flip From R to D
If you are looking to contribute to help Democrats secure the House of Representatives, P4D has done some research to help you decide where to spend your money. These are all races that could flip from Republican to Democrat.
To Contribute to These Candidates, Click Here.
Arizona 1 — AMISH SHAH (D) v. David Schweikert*. This district encompasses northeast Phoenix, Mesa, and Scottsdale and is the wealthiest district in Arizona. It leans slightly (+2%) Republican compared to the nation as a whole, although had the current lines been in place in 2020, President Biden would have carried the district by about 1.5%. The Democratic candidate, Amish Shah, served three terms in the Arizona House of Representatives and is challenging incumbent David Schweikert, who won his seat in 2022 by .8%. This race is uniformly viewed as a toss-up. Shah faced a contested July 30 primary, so has had to rebuild his campaign war chest in the last few weeks. As of the pre-primary July 10 FEC filing (the latest reported data), Shah had $216,000 and Schweikert had $1,549,000 cash on hand. https://www.amishforarizona.com/
Arizona 6 – KIRSTEN ENGEL (D) v. John Ciscomani*. Arizona’s 6th CD is primarily centered in the suburbs of Tucson and outlying counties. It has a slightly Republican tilt (R+3), although under the current redistricted lines, it would have been one of the 18 state legislative districts that would have been won by President Biden. Ciscomani is a first term Representative, having beaten state senator Engel in 2022, flipping the seat with 50.7% of the vote to Engel’s 49.2. This race is considered a tossup with perhaps a slight Republican lean. As of June 30, Engel had about $3.2 million cash on hand to Ciscomani’s $2,7 million, although Ciscomani had to spend funds in a July 30 primary. https://www.engelforarizona.com/
California 13 – ADAM GRAY (D) v. John Duarte*. This race is a rematch of the 2022 election which Duarte won by 564 votes, flipping the district from Democrat to Republican, in the second tightest race in the country. Located in the San Joaquin Valley, it’s a D+4 district, so should be ripe for a pickup. As of June 30, Gray had about $1.8 million and Duarte had about $2.1 million on hand. https://www.adamgrayforcongress.com/
California 22 – RUDY SALAS (D) v. David Valadeo*. Another rematch of 2022, in which Valadeo won with 51.5% to 48.5% of the vote. The 22nd district, located in the Central Valley, is majority Latino. Valadeo was first elected in 2012 and except for 2018, has been reelected since then. He voted against Trump in the second impeachment and is one of only two Republicans who voted to impeach who remain in Congress. Salas was a state assemblyman in this D+5 district. As of June 30, Valadeo reported about $2 million cash on hand and Salas reported about $1.74. https://rudysalas.com/
California 27 – GEORGE WHITESIDES (D) v. Mike Garcia*. This district includes most of northern Los Angeles County. Garcia won the seat in a special election (following the resignation of Katie Hill) in 2020 and was reelected in 2022 with 53.2% of the vote. He’s been highly supportive of Trump. In its current form since most recent redistricting in advance of the 2022 election, it’s considered a D+4 district. Whitesides, a newcomer to electoral politics, was the chief of staff of NASA in the Obama administration and former CEO of Virgin Galactic. As of June 30, Garcia reports $2.2 million cash on hand, and Whitesides reports about $3.9 million. https://www.georgewhitesides.com/
Nebraska 2 – TONY VARGAS v. Don Bacon*. Nebraska and Maine are the only two states in which each congressional district has its own Electoral College vote. Nebraska’s Second Congressional District is widely considered to be a tossup swing district with perhaps a slight Republican tilt, so it is hotly contested in the Presidential race. It includes the state’s largest city, Omaha. President Biden won the electoral vote of the second district in 2020, even as he was losing the rest of the state. The incumbent, Don Bacon, was first elected in 2016 and is considered a moderate to conservative Republican, but he has been a thorn in Trump’s side. In 2022, he beat his current opponent, Tony Vargas, a state Senator, 51.33% to 48.67%. In this year’s rematch, Vargas reported $2.524 million cash on hand as of June 30, and Bacon reported $2.215 million. https://www.vargasfornebraska.com/
New York 4 – LAURA GILLEN (D) v. Anthony D’Esposito*. The 4th district is located on the South Shore of Nassau County, just east of Brooklyn. Along with California’s 22nd district at D+5, it is the most Democratic congressional district in the country represented by a Republican and it’s the wealthiest district in New York state. President Biden carried the district in 2020, 56%-42%. Gillen is the former elected Town Supervisor of the Town of Hempstead. This is a rematch of the 2022, when D’Esposito won with 51.8%. In their June 30 reports, D’Esposito showed $2.172 million, and Gillen reported $2.519 million cash on hand. Republican groups appear to be pouring millions into this race. https://lauragillen.com/
New York 17 – MONDAIRE JONES (D) v. Michael Lawler*. This district, located in the Lower Hudson Valley, was the site of one of the most stunning upsets in 2022, with Lawler defeating Sean Patrick Maloney, who was chairing the House Democrats’ election efforts. Lawler beat Maloney with 50.3% of the vote. Jones, a former one-term representative who was displaced in redistricting drama, is seeking to regain his former seat in this D+3 district. In the most recent reports as of June 30, Jones reported $4.313 million and Lawler reported $3.93 million cash on hand. https://mondaireforcongress.com/
New York 19 – JOSH RILEY (D) v. Marc Molinaro*. Another district with a redistricting saga, the current 19th stretches from the Massachusetts border west to the Finger Lakes this rematch of the 2022 race that Molinaro won with 50.76%. As of June 30, Riley appears to have more in the bank — $4 million to $2.260, but this is a key race in an R+1 district that Republicans will spend heavily to defend. https://www.joshrileyforcongress.com/
New York 22 – JOHN MANNION (D) v. Brandon Williams*. The 22nd includes the central New York cities of Syracuse and Utica. Williams, a Trump lapdog, is seeking his second term in this D+3 district, which he won in 2022 with 50.5%. The district’s lines have since been redrawn to make the congressional district a bit more Democratic and one of the best flip opportunities in the nation. Mannion, a former biology teacher and union representative, is currently a state Senator. Following the late June primary, Mannion’s June 30 reports showed his campaign with $341,000, while Williams had $1.364 million available. https://www.mannionforny.com/
Oregon 5 – JANELLE BYNUM (D) v. Lori Chavez-DeRemer*. Oregon’s 5th congressional district encompasses the southeast suburbs of Portland, moving east through the Willamette Valley and across to Cascade to include the city of Bend. First term representative Chavez-DeRemer is seeking reelection; she was previously beaten twice by Bynum in races for the Oregon House of Representatives. The race is seen as a pure tossup. The June 30 reports show Bynum with a significant funding deficit, $1.088 million to Chavez-DeRemer’s $2.410 million. https://www.janellebynum.com/